Group J · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Argentina
3:0
Algeria

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Live descriptive stats

ArgentinaAlgeria
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Argentina1.801.23−0.57
Algeria0.630.31−0.32

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
7
Shots on target
6
0
Possession (%)
48%
52%
Corners
2
2
Fouls
13
8
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a possession dominant system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Algeria's aggressive press (PPDA 11.1) against Argentina's deeper build-up (PPDA 19.1) creates a clear territory question: can Algeria force errors high up, or will Argentina play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Both sides run the same system (possession dominant), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. Lionel Messi carries the marginally higher scoring probability (10.7% vs 6.5%).

Off the pitch

Lionel Scaloni (8 years in charge of Argentina) vs Vladimir Petković (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Algeria just 12.6% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 1
Date:
16 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Argentina

Argentina come in at close to full strength.

Algeria

Algeria: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtAnthony Mandrea, the first-choice goalkeeper, is recovering from Shoulder injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
What it means

Availability runs in Argentina's favour here: Algeria are managing a fitness concern over Anthony Mandrea, while Argentina's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Argentina (above the line)Algeria (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 17' · L. MessiGoal, 60' · L. MessiGoal, 76' · L. Messi

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Argentina minus Algeria: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

ArgentinaAlgeria
  • 8'VAR reviewF. ChaibiVAR review under way.
  • GoalL. Messi· R. de PaulL. Messi scores for Argentina.17'
  • SubstitutionG. Montiel· N. MolinaArgentina change: N. Molina.46'
  • SubstitutionL. Martinez· J. AlvarezArgentina change: J. Alvarez.55'
  • SubstitutionT. Almada· N. GonzalezArgentina change: N. Gonzalez.55'
  • GoalL. MessiL. Messi scores for Argentina.60'
  • 64'SubstitutionH. Boudaoui· H. AouarAlgeria change: H. Aouar.
  • 64'SubstitutionA. Gouiri· M. AmouraAlgeria change: M. Amoura.
  • 64'SubstitutionA. Hadj Moussa· R. MahrezAlgeria change: R. Mahrez.
  • GoalL. Messi· N. GonzalezL. Messi scores for Argentina.76'
  • SubstitutionL. Messi· N. PazArgentina change: N. Paz.80'
  • SubstitutionC. Romero· N. OtamendiArgentina change: N. Otamendi.80'
  • 81'SubstitutionN. Bentaleb· A. BoulbinaAlgeria change: A. Boulbina.
  • 82'SubstitutionI. Maza· R. ZerroukiAlgeria change: R. Zerrouki.

Player involvement

Argentina

L. Messi17' Goal · 60' Goal · 76' Goal · 80' On
AR. de Paul17' Assist
AN. Gonzalez55' Off · 76' Assist
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Argentina win
69.6%
Draw
23.3%
Algeria win
7.1%
Argentina
1.80
expected
goals
Algeria
0.63

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.3%
  • 2–0
    14.3%
  • 1–1
    10.6%
  • 0–0
    9.4%
  • 2–1
    9.0%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 0
Argentina win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Argentina win· realised
    69.9%
  • Draw
    22.0%
  • Algeria win
    8.1%
Brier score
0.146
Log loss
0.358
xG (final / predicted)
1.23 / 1.90 · Argentina
0.31 / 0.63 · Algeria
P(realised outcome)
69.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。