Group H · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Saudi Arabia
1:1
Uruguay

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

Saudi ArabiaUruguay
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Saudi Arabia0.450.99+0.54
Uruguay1.511.48−0.03

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
7
24
Shots on target
3
9
Possession (%)
35%
65%
Corners
4
10
Fouls
11
6
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.

What decides it

Darwin Núñez's 8.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Saudi Arabia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model gives Saudi Arabia just 12.3% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Saudi Arabia or Uruguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 1
Date:
15 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia come in at close to full strength.

Uruguay

Uruguay: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtGiorgian de Arrascaeta, the second-choice midfielder, is recovering from Muscle injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
What it means

Availability runs in Saudi Arabia's favour here: Uruguay are managing a fitness concern over Giorgian de Arrascaeta, while Saudi Arabia's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Saudi Arabia (above the line)Uruguay (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 41' · A. Al AmriGoal, 80' · M. Araujo

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Saudi Arabia minus Uruguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

Saudi ArabiaUruguay
  • GoalA. Al AmriA. Al Amri scores for Saudi Arabia.41'
  • Yellow cardA. Al Amri· RoughingA. Al Amri is booked — Roughing.44'
  • 46'SubstitutionM. Vina· J. SanabriaUruguay change: J. Sanabria.
  • 46'SubstitutionD. Nunez· A. CanobbioUruguay change: A. Canobbio.
  • SubstitutionM. Al Juwayr· N. Al DawsariSaudi Arabia change: N. Al Dawsari.63'
  • 72'SubstitutionM. Ugarte· N. de la CruzUruguay change: N. de la Cruz.
  • 80'GoalM. AraujoM. Araujo scores for Uruguay.
  • 81'SubstitutionM. Araujo· B. RodriguezUruguay change: B. Rodriguez.
  • SubstitutionM. Abu Al Shamat· N. BoushalSaudi Arabia change: N. Boushal.81'
  • 90'SubstitutionF. Vinas· R. AguirreUruguay change: R. Aguirre.
  • SubstitutionS. Abdulhamid· A. LajamiSaudi Arabia change: A. Lajami.90'+3
  • SubstitutionM. Al Harbi· A. Al HamdanSaudi Arabia change: A. Al Hamdan.90'+3
  • SubstitutionF. Al Buraikan· A. HejjiSaudi Arabia change: A. Hejji.90'+3

Player involvement

Saudi Arabia

A. Al Amri41' Goal · 44' Yellow card

Uruguay

M. Araujo80' Goal · 81' On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Saudi Arabia win
5.9%
Draw
26.8%
Uruguay win
67.3%
Saudi Arabia
0.45
expected
goals
Uruguay
1.51

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–1
    20.8%
  • 0–2
    16.2%
  • 0–0
    14.7%
  • 1–1
    10.1%
  • 0–3
    8.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Saudi Arabia win
    9.1%
  • Draw· realised
    25.5%
  • Uruguay win
    65.5%
Brier score
0.992
Log loss
1.367
xG (final / predicted)
0.99 / 0.45 · Saudi Arabia
1.48 / 1.55 · Uruguay
P(realised outcome)
25.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.