Group H · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Saudi Arabia
1:1
Uruguay

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Live descriptive stats

Saudi ArabiaUruguay
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Saudi Arabia0.450.99+0.54
Uruguay1.511.48−0.03

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
7
24
Shots on target
3
9
Possession (%)
35%
65%
Corners
4
10
Fouls
11
6
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.

What decides it

Darwin Núñez's 8.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Saudi Arabia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model gives Saudi Arabia just 12.3% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Saudi Arabia or Uruguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 1
Date:
15 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia come in at close to full strength.

Uruguay

Uruguay: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtGiorgian de Arrascaeta, the second-choice midfielder, is recovering from Muscle injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
What it means

Availability runs in Saudi Arabia's favour here: Uruguay are managing a fitness concern over Giorgian de Arrascaeta, while Saudi Arabia's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveBeschrijvende statistieken en de vertraagde live-winkans · ververst elke ~30 seconden

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Saudi Arabia (above the line)Uruguay (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 41' · A. Al AmriGoal, 80' · M. Araujo

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Saudi Arabia minus Uruguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

Saudi ArabiaUruguay
  • GoalA. Al AmriA. Al Amri scores for Saudi Arabia.41'
  • Yellow cardA. Al Amri· RoughingA. Al Amri is booked — Roughing.44'
  • 46'SubstitutionM. Vina· J. SanabriaUruguay change: J. Sanabria.
  • 46'SubstitutionD. Nunez· A. CanobbioUruguay change: A. Canobbio.
  • SubstitutionM. Al Juwayr· N. Al DawsariSaudi Arabia change: N. Al Dawsari.63'
  • 72'SubstitutionM. Ugarte· N. de la CruzUruguay change: N. de la Cruz.
  • 80'GoalM. AraujoM. Araujo scores for Uruguay.
  • 81'SubstitutionM. Araujo· B. RodriguezUruguay change: B. Rodriguez.
  • SubstitutionM. Abu Al Shamat· N. BoushalSaudi Arabia change: N. Boushal.81'
  • 90'SubstitutionF. Vinas· R. AguirreUruguay change: R. Aguirre.
  • SubstitutionS. Abdulhamid· A. LajamiSaudi Arabia change: A. Lajami.90'+3
  • SubstitutionM. Al Harbi· A. Al HamdanSaudi Arabia change: A. Al Hamdan.90'+3
  • SubstitutionF. Al Buraikan· A. HejjiSaudi Arabia change: A. Hejji.90'+3

Player involvement

Saudi Arabia

A. Al Amri41' Goal · 44' Yellow card

Uruguay

M. Araujo80' Goal · 81' On
VoorafmodelBevroren voor aftrap

Pre-match forecast

Saudi Arabia win
5.8%
Draw
26.6%
Uruguay win
67.6%
Saudi Arabia
0.45
expected
goals
Uruguay
1.51

De gepubliceerde kans voor deze wedstrijd staat vast bij de opstellingsbevestiging (≈1 uur voor de aftrap) en wordt daarna niet meer bijgewerkt. Dat is het getal waarop de terugblik na afloop afrekent. De live-winkans in de Live-sectie is een aparte, vertraagde, beschrijvende schatting; die vervangt de gepubliceerde voorspelling niet.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–1
    20.8%
  • 0–2
    16.2%
  • 0–0
    14.7%
  • 1–1
    10.1%
  • 0–3
    8.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Saudi Arabia win
    9.1%
  • Draw· realised
    25.5%
  • Uruguay win
    65.5%
Brier score
0.992
Log loss
1.367
xG (final / predicted)
0.99 / 0.45 · Saudi Arabia
1.48 / 1.55 · Uruguay
P(realised outcome)
25.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Volledige terugblik voorspelling versus resultaat →

Zo werkt de live-kans. De gepubliceerde voorspelling vooraf wordt bevroren bij de opstellingslock (T-1h) en verandert na de aftrap niet meer; de terugblik na afloop toetst dat bevroren getal aan de uitslag. De live-winkans die tijdens het spel wordt getoond is hetzelfde model, opnieuw uitgelezen op basis van de stand en de resterende tijd. Die ververst ongeveer één keer per minuut, loopt altijd vertraagd en is een beschrijvend onderzoekscijfer, geen gokproduct en geen prijs van welke aard dan ook. Zie /docs/methodology/ voor het volledige kader.