Group H · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Spain
0:0
Cape Verde

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

SpainCape Verde
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Spain2.692.29−0.40
Cape Verde0.380.30−0.08

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
27
6
Shots on target
7
1
Possession (%)
74%
26%
Corners
11
1
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Spain want to build from the back; Cape Verde press high to prevent exactly that. If Spain play through the press they'll find dangerous space. If they don't, turnovers come in costly areas. Spain will expect to hold 68% possession. Cape Verde need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Spain's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Cape Verde press high (PPDA 17.2). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Mikel Oyarzabal's 11.6% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Cape Verde's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model gives Cape Verde just 5.1% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 1
Date:
15 Jun
Availability

Spain

Spain come in at close to full strength.

Cape Verde

Cape Verde come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Spain and Cape Verde both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Spain (above the line)Cape Verde (below)
15'30'HT60'75'

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Spain minus Cape Verde: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

SpainCape Verde
  • 16'Yellow cardS. Lopes Cabral· RoughingS. Lopes Cabral is booked — Roughing.
  • 61'SubstitutionJ. Cabral· W. SemedoCape Verde change: W. Semedo.
  • 61'SubstitutionD. Livramento· N. Da CostaCape Verde change: N. Da Costa.
  • 61'SubstitutionL. Duarte· D. DuarteCape Verde change: D. Duarte.
  • SubstitutionF. Ruiz· M. MerinoSpain change: M. Merino.71'
  • SubstitutionGavi· Lamine YamalSpain change: Lamine Yamal.71'
  • 76'SubstitutionS. Lopes Cabral· Joao PauloCape Verde change: Joao Paulo.
  • 79'SubstitutionJ. Monteiro· T. ArcanjoCape Verde change: T. Arcanjo.
  • SubstitutionF. Torres· D. OlmoSpain change: D. Olmo.81'
  • SubstitutionRodri· N. WilliamsSpain change: N. Williams.87'
  • Yellow cardPedri· HoldingPedri is booked — Holding.90'+3

Player involvement

Spain

Pedri90'+3 Yellow card

Cape Verde

S. Lopes Cabral16' Yellow card · 76' On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Spain win
83.9%
Draw
15.0%
Cape Verde win
1.0%
Spain
2.69
expected
goals
Cape Verde
0.38

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    16.8%
  • 3–0
    15.1%
  • 1–0
    12.2%
  • 4–0
    10.1%
  • 2–1
    6.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

0 – 0
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Spain win
    85.0%
  • Draw· realised
    12.4%
  • Cape Verde win
    2.5%
Brier score
1.490
Log loss
2.085
xG (final / predicted)
2.29 / 2.92 · Spain
0.30 / 0.39 · Cape Verde
P(realised outcome)
12.4%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.