Group H · Matchday 1
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Spain win85.0%
- Draw12.4%
- Cape Verde win2.5%
Analysis
The model rates Spain as clear favourites at 85.0%, with Cape Verde at 2.5% and the draw at 12.4%. The Elo gap is substantial at 616 points in Spain's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group H, Spain are expected to advance (99.7%) while Cape Verde face a tighter path (25.7%) — this result could be decisive for Cape Verde's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Spain (possession dominant) meet Cape Verde (high press) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Spain typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Cape Verde's 53% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Spain need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Cape Verde must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Mikel Oyarzabal (P(scores) 10.5%) against Nuno da Costa (5.4%) — their impact could prove decisive. Cape Verde play a more direct game while Spain build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Spain's Lamine Yamal is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
At 2.5%, a Cape Verde result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces. The model and FIFA ranking diverge significantly on Spain (8.6 percentage points) — this fixture tests whether the model's contrarian assessment holds.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Spain or Cape Verde.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 1
Squad availability presents some challenges for both teams, with one side particularly impacted by a key player's doubtful status. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Spain v Cape Verde plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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