Group H · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Spain want to build from the back; Cape Verde press high to prevent exactly that. If Spain play through the press they'll find dangerous space. If they don't, turnovers come in costly areas. Spain will expect to hold 68% possession. Cape Verde need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Spain's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Cape Verde press high (PPDA 17.2). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Mikel Oyarzabal's 11.6% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Cape Verde's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model gives Cape Verde just 5.1% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Spain or Cape Verde.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 15 Jun
Spain
Spain come in at close to full strength.
Cape Verde
Cape Verde come in at close to full strength.
Spain and Cape Verde both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Spain minus Cape Verde: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 16'Yellow cardS. Lopes Cabral· RoughingS. Lopes Cabral is booked — Roughing.
- 61'SubstitutionJ. Cabral· W. SemedoCape Verde change: W. Semedo.
- 61'SubstitutionD. Livramento· N. Da CostaCape Verde change: N. Da Costa.
- 61'SubstitutionL. Duarte· D. DuarteCape Verde change: D. Duarte.
- SubstitutionF. Ruiz· M. MerinoSpain change: M. Merino.71'
- SubstitutionGavi· Lamine YamalSpain change: Lamine Yamal.71'
- 76'SubstitutionS. Lopes Cabral· Joao PauloCape Verde change: Joao Paulo.
- 79'SubstitutionJ. Monteiro· T. ArcanjoCape Verde change: T. Arcanjo.
- SubstitutionF. Torres· D. OlmoSpain change: D. Olmo.81'
- SubstitutionRodri· N. WilliamsSpain change: N. Williams.87'
- Yellow cardPedri· HoldingPedri is booked — Holding.90'+3
Player involvement
Spain
Cape Verde
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–016.8%
- 3–015.1%
- 1–012.2%
- 4–010.1%
- 2–16.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Spain win85.0%
- Draw· realised12.4%
- Cape Verde win2.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.