Group H · Matchday 1
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Spain win85.0%
- Draw12.4%
- Cape Verde win2.5%
Analysis
The model rates Spain as clear favourites at 85.0%, with Cape Verde at 2.5% and the draw at 12.4%. The Elo gap is substantial at 616 points in Spain's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group H, Spain are expected to advance (99.7%) while Cape Verde face a tighter path (25.7%) — this result could be decisive for Cape Verde's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Spain (possession dominant) meet Cape Verde (high press) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Spain typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Cape Verde's 53% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Spain need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Cape Verde must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Mikel Oyarzabal (P(scores) 10.5%) against Nuno da Costa (5.4%) — their impact could prove decisive. Cape Verde play a more direct game while Spain build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Spain's Lamine Yamal is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
At 2.5%, a Cape Verde result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces. The model and FIFA ranking diverge significantly on Spain (8.6 percentage points) — this fixture tests whether the model's contrarian assessment holds.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Spain or Cape Verde.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 1
Squad availability presents some challenges for both teams, with one side particularly impacted by a key player's doubtful status. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Spain v Cape Verde plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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