Group C · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Brazil
1:1
Morocco

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

BrazilMorocco
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Brazil1.151.24+0.09
Morocco0.651.28+0.63

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
12
12
Shots on target
4
2
Possession (%)
54%
46%
Corners
5
0
Fouls
15
14
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Brazil's high press game meets Morocco's counter attacker shape. Morocco will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Brazil's high line leaves behind. Brazil's aggressive press (PPDA 17.1) against Morocco's deeper build-up (PPDA 22.2) creates a clear territory question: can Brazil force errors high up, or will Morocco play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Raphinha carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.9% vs 6.1%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 1
Date:
13 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Brazil

Brazil come in at close to full strength.

Morocco

Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
What it means

Availability runs in Brazil's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Brazil's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Brazil (above the line)Morocco (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 21' · I. SaibariGoal, 32' · Vinicius Junior

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Morocco: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

BrazilMorocco
  • 21'GoalI. Saibari· B. DiazI. Saibari scores for Morocco.
  • GoalVinicius Junior· Bruno GuimaraesVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.32'
  • Yellow cardCasemiro· TrippingCasemiro is booked — Tripping.37'
  • Yellow cardIbanez· TrippingIbanez is booked — Tripping.43'
  • SubstitutionIbanez· DaniloBrazil change: Danilo.46'
  • SubstitutionCasemiro· FabinhoBrazil change: Fabinho.46'
  • SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· M. CunhaBrazil change: M. Cunha.61'
  • SubstitutionI. Thiago· Luiz HenriqueBrazil change: Luiz Henrique.62'
  • 65'SubstitutionB. Diaz· C. TalbiMorocco change: C. Talbi.
  • 65'SubstitutionA. Ounahi· S. El MourabetMorocco change: S. El Mourabet.
  • 80'SubstitutionN. Mazraoui· A. Salah-EddineMorocco change: A. Salah-Eddine.
  • 80'SubstitutionB. El Khannouss· A. AmaimouniMorocco change: A. Amaimouni.
  • SubstitutionBruno Guimaraes· Danilo SantosBrazil change: Danilo Santos.80'
  • 89'SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiMorocco change: S. Rahimi.

Player involvement

Brazil

Vinicius Junior32' Goal
ABruno Guimaraes32' Assist · 80' On
Casemiro37' Yellow card · 46' On
Ibanez43' Yellow card · 46' On

Morocco

I. Saibari21' Goal · 89' On
AB. Diaz21' Assist · 65' On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Brazil win
53.4%
Draw
30.5%
Morocco win
16.1%
Brazil
1.15
expected
goals
Morocco
0.65

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    18.2%
  • 0–0
    17.3%
  • 1–1
    13.1%
  • 2–0
    10.9%
  • 0–1
    10.0%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Brazil win
    50.1%
  • Draw· realised
    30.2%
  • Morocco win
    19.7%
Brier score
0.776
Log loss
1.197
xG (final / predicted)
1.24 / 1.06 · Brazil
1.28 / 0.59 · Morocco
P(realised outcome)
30.2%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.