Group C · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Brazil's high press game meets Morocco's counter attacker shape. Morocco will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Brazil's high line leaves behind. Brazil's aggressive press (PPDA 17.1) against Morocco's deeper build-up (PPDA 22.2) creates a clear territory question: can Brazil force errors high up, or will Morocco play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Raphinha carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.9% vs 6.1%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Brazil or Morocco.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 13 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Brazil
Brazil come in at close to full strength.
Morocco
Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Availability runs in Brazil's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Brazil's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Morocco: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 21'GoalI. Saibari· B. DiazI. Saibari scores for Morocco.
- GoalVinicius Junior· Bruno GuimaraesVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.32'
- Yellow cardCasemiro· TrippingCasemiro is booked — Tripping.37'
- Yellow cardIbanez· TrippingIbanez is booked — Tripping.43'
- SubstitutionIbanez· DaniloBrazil change: Danilo.46'
- SubstitutionCasemiro· FabinhoBrazil change: Fabinho.46'
- SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· M. CunhaBrazil change: M. Cunha.61'
- SubstitutionI. Thiago· Luiz HenriqueBrazil change: Luiz Henrique.62'
- 65'SubstitutionB. Diaz· C. TalbiMorocco change: C. Talbi.
- 65'SubstitutionA. Ounahi· S. El MourabetMorocco change: S. El Mourabet.
- 80'SubstitutionN. Mazraoui· A. Salah-EddineMorocco change: A. Salah-Eddine.
- 80'SubstitutionB. El Khannouss· A. AmaimouniMorocco change: A. Amaimouni.
- SubstitutionBruno Guimaraes· Danilo SantosBrazil change: Danilo Santos.80'
- 89'SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiMorocco change: S. Rahimi.
Player involvement
Brazil
Morocco
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–018.2%
- 0–017.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–110.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Brazil win50.1%
- Draw· realised30.2%
- Morocco win19.7%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.