予測 vs 結果 · Group B · Matchday 1

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

2026-06-12

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Canada win
    57.9%
  • Draw· realised
    24.5%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.936
Log loss
1.407
xG (final / predicted)
1.25 / 1.38 · Canada
0.98 / 0.92 · Bosnia and Herzegovina
P(realised outcome)
24.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Against the forecastThe model rated this outcome at 24.5%.

Key moments

21'⚽
Goal

J. Lukic (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

S. Kolasinac

78'⚽
Goal

C. Larin (Canada)

P. David

Match statistics

CanadaBOS
61%
Possession
39%
13
Shots
8
4
On target
3
1.25
xG
0.98
9
Corners
4
10
Fouls
20
2
Yellows
3

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (1–1) was the model's #1 most likely outcome at 13.3%.

#11–113.3%
#21–013.3%
#30–010.6%
#42–09.5%
#52–18.8%

Team performance

CanadaC+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Below profile3/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
In line6/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team showed resilience to secure a draw after conceding first, but defensive lapses remain a concern.

Bosnia and HerzegovinaB-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line7/10
Set pieces
In line8/10
Chance creation
In line4/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
In line6/10
Individual quality
In line8/10

The team showed resilience to secure an away draw against a pressing opponent, despite being under significant defensive pressure.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Canada
8
Cyle Larin76'–351'

Came off the bench to score the crucial equalizing goal, making a significant impact.

2goals1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

76'Canada's Oluwaseyi was replaced by Larin.
79'Canada's Larin scored the equalising goal with a shot from inside the box.
89'Bosnia's Katić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Larin.
339'Canada makes a substitution: player #12 Oluwaseyi is replaced by player #9 Larin.
351'Canada equalises with a superb turn and shot from inside the penalty area, finding the top corner of the net.
6
Liam Millar1'–61'

Committed a foul and was substituted without making a significant impact.

1fouls won1fouls
▼

Match timeline

1'Canada's Millar committed a foul on Bosnia's Kolašinac.
3'Bosnia's Kolašinac received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Millar.
61'Canada's Millar was replaced by Promise David.
6
Jonathan David28'–28'

Drew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

28'Bosnia's Muharemović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's David.
6
Derek Cornelius45'–45'

Drew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

45'Bosnia's Demirović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Cornelius.
6
Tajon Buchanan47'–47'

Drew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

47'Bosnia's Dedić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Buchanan.
6
Promise David61'–61'

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

61'Canada's Millar was replaced by Promise David.
6
Tani Oluwaseyi76'–339'

Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.

▼

Match timeline

76'Canada's Oluwaseyi was replaced by Larin.
339'Canada makes a substitution: player #12 Oluwaseyi is replaced by player #9 Larin.
6
Stephen Eustáquio90'–90'

Played for most of the match before being substituted without notable distinction.

▼

Match timeline

90'Canada's Eustáquio was replaced by Osorio.
6
Jonathan Osorio90'–90'

Came on as a late substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

90'Canada's Eustáquio was replaced by Osorio.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8
Jovo Lukić21'–21'

Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

21'Bosnia's Lukić scored with a header from a flick-on at the near post.
8
Nikola Vasilj

Made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention.

1saves
▼

Match timeline

7
Sead Kolašinac1'–3'

Made an astonishing goal-line clearance but received an early yellow card.

2blocks1fouls won1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

1'Canada's Millar committed a foul on Bosnia's Kolašinac.
3'Bosnia's Kolašinac received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Millar.
7
Tarik Muharemović28'–28'

Made a crucial defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

1blocks1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

28'Bosnia's Muharemović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's David.
7
Nikola Katić89'–89'

Made a key defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

1blocks1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

89'Bosnia's Katić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Larin.
6
Amar Memić2'–2'

Took a free-kick that went over the bar, with no other notable contributions.

1shots
▼

Match timeline

2'Bosnia's Memić shot over the bar from a free-kick.
6
Esmir Bajraktarević74'–74'

Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.

▼

Match timeline

74'Bosnia's Bajraktarević was replaced by Sunjić.
6
Ivan Šunjić74'–74'

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

74'Bosnia's Bajraktarević was replaced by Sunjić.
5
Ermedin Demirović45'–45'

Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

45'Bosnia's Demirović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Cornelius.
5
Amar Dedić47'–47'

Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

47'Bosnia's Dedić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Buchanan.

Match observations

  • The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina took the lead from a set-piece header in the first half.
  • Canada pressed for an equaliser, eventually finding it through a substitute in the second half.
← 試合前の予測ライブトラッカー →

読み方。 1試合の Brier score と log loss はノイズが多く、重要なのは多くの試合にわたるキャリブレーションです。この試合別振り返りは、総合キャリブレーション・スコアボードの1行に相当します。 /docs/calibration/. ここに表示される試合前の確率はキックオフ前に固定されたもので、試合中に再計算されていません。