Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group D · Matchday 1

United StatesvsParaguay

·18:00 local

Historial de enfrentamientos

DateCompetitionVenueScoreResultxG
15 Nov 2025FriendlyHChester21W
27 Mar 2018FriendlyHCary10W
11 Jun 2016Copa AméricaHPhiladelphia10W
29 Mar 2011FriendlyHNashville01L
2 Jul 2007Copa AméricaNBarinas13L
6 Jul 2003FriendlyHColumbus20W

United States vs Paraguay, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from United States's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral). See all 9 meetings →

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 1

Both sides contend with multiple key player doubts ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • United States win
    32.3%
  • Draw
    29.4%
  • Paraguay win
    38.3%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Paraguay #39 in the world; the model ranks them #20 in this tournament field, 19 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how United States v Paraguay plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Cómo se calcula. Todos los resultados del proceso de goles comparten un único ajuste Dixon-Coles. Ver metodología.

Datos al 2026-05-28