Group C · Matchday 1

← Vor-Spiel-Prognose
Scheduled
Haiti
–:–
Scotland

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Haiti win
    16.4%
  • Draw
    22.4%
  • Scotland win
    61.1%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates Scotland as clear favourites at 61.1%, with Haiti at 16.4% and the draw at 22.4%. The Elo gap is substantial at 235 points in Scotland's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group C fixture with advance probabilities of 7.8% for Haiti and 73.6% for Scotland.

Tactical matchup

Haiti (balanced) meet Scotland (low block) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.

Key battlegrounds

Scotland will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. The individual battle features Dany Jean (P(scores) 5.5%) against Ché Adams (3.5%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

Scotland's Steve Clarke (7.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sébastien Migné (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

A Group C fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.

Key numbers

16.4% / 22.4% / 61.1%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-235Elo differentialHaiti 1532 vs Scotland 1767
0.75 – 2.19Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
0-2 (12.7%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
47.4%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
5.5%P(goal) — Dany JeanHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 1

Both sides face key availability concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Haiti v Scotland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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So funktioniert die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die veröffentlichte Vorab-Prognose wird beim Aufstellungs-Lock (T-1h) eingefroren und ändert sich nach Anpfiff nicht mehr; der Rückblick nach Abpfiff bewertet diese eingefrorene Zahl am Ergebnis. Die während des Spiels gezeigte Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit ist dasselbe Modell, neu ausgelesen anhand von Spielstand und Restzeit. Sie aktualisiert sich etwa einmal pro Minute, ist immer verzögert und ist eine beschreibende Forschungsgröße, kein Wettprodukt und kein Preis irgendeiner Art. Siehe /docs/methodology/ für die vollständige Einordnung.