Group C · Matchday 1
按双方FIFA排名之和计算的当日最强对阵对所有人免费：完整预测和完整实时追踪。其他比赛需要Standard Pass。 查看Pass
Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Scotland defend deep and give Haiti the ball. The question is whether Haiti's balanced approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through.
What decides it
Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. The scoring threat is evenly split: Dany Jean (5.3%) and Ché Adams (3.8%).
Off the pitch
Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Sébastien Migné (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Haiti or Scotland.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 13 Jun
Haiti and Scotland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Haiti minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 28'GoalJ. McGinnJ. McGinn scores for Scotland.
- Yellow cardJ. Bellegarde· TrippingJ. Bellegarde is booked — Tripping.39'
- 46'Yellow cardA. Hickey· HoldingA. Hickey is booked — Holding.
- SubstitutionL. Deedson· J. CasimirHaiti change: J. Casimir.61'
- 75'SubstitutionB. Gannon-Doak· R. ChristieScotland change: R. Christie.
- 75'SubstitutionA. Hickey· N. PattersonScotland change: N. Patterson.
- 75'SubstitutionC. Adams· L. DykesScotland change: L. Dykes.
- SubstitutionW. Isidor· L. JosephHaiti change: L. Joseph.76'
- 83'SubstitutionJ. McGinn· F. CurtisScotland change: F. Curtis.
- 83'SubstitutionL. Shankland· K. McLeanScotland change: K. McLean.
- SubstitutionR. Providence· Y. FortuneHaiti change: Y. Fortune.85'
- 90'+1Yellow cardF. Curtis· RoughingF. Curtis is booked — Roughing.
- 90'+5Yellow cardK. McLean· RoughingK. McLean is booked — Roughing.
Player involvement
Haiti
Scotland
Pre-match forecast
goals
本场比赛的已发布概率在首发名单确认时（开球前约1小时）固定，此后不再更新。赛后回顾问责的就是这个数字。Live 区域中的实时获胜概率是另一个有延迟的描述性估计，不会取代已发布的预测。
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–38.2%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Haiti win16.4%
- Draw22.4%
- Scotland win· realised61.1%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.