Group C · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Scotland defend deep and give Haiti the ball. The question is whether Haiti's balanced approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through.
What decides it
Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. The scoring threat is evenly split: Dany Jean (5.3%) and Ché Adams (3.8%).
Off the pitch
Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Sébastien Migné (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Haiti or Scotland.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 13 Jun
Haiti and Scotland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Haiti minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 28'GoalJ. McGinnJ. McGinn scores for Scotland.
- Yellow cardJ. Bellegarde· TrippingJ. Bellegarde is booked — Tripping.39'
- 46'Yellow cardA. Hickey· HoldingA. Hickey is booked — Holding.
- SubstitutionL. Deedson· J. CasimirHaiti change: J. Casimir.61'
- 75'SubstitutionB. Gannon-Doak· R. ChristieScotland change: R. Christie.
- 75'SubstitutionA. Hickey· N. PattersonScotland change: N. Patterson.
- 75'SubstitutionC. Adams· L. DykesScotland change: L. Dykes.
- SubstitutionW. Isidor· L. JosephHaiti change: L. Joseph.76'
- 83'SubstitutionJ. McGinn· F. CurtisScotland change: F. Curtis.
- 83'SubstitutionL. Shankland· K. McLeanScotland change: K. McLean.
- SubstitutionR. Providence· Y. FortuneHaiti change: Y. Fortune.85'
- 90'+1Yellow cardF. Curtis· RoughingF. Curtis is booked — Roughing.
- 90'+5Yellow cardK. McLean· RoughingK. McLean is booked — Roughing.
Player involvement
Haiti
Scotland
Pre-match forecast
goals
De gepubliceerde kans voor deze wedstrijd staat vast bij de opstellingsbevestiging (≈1 uur voor de aftrap) en wordt daarna niet meer bijgewerkt. Dat is het getal waarop de terugblik na afloop afrekent. De live-winkans in de Live-sectie is een aparte, vertraagde, beschrijvende schatting; die vervangt de gepubliceerde voorspelling niet.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–38.2%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Haiti win16.4%
- Draw22.4%
- Scotland win· realised61.1%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.