Group C · Matchday 1

← Pronóstico previo al partido
Scheduled
Haiti
–:–
Scotland

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Haiti win
    16.4%
  • Draw
    22.4%
  • Scotland win
    61.1%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates Scotland as clear favourites at 61.1%, with Haiti at 16.4% and the draw at 22.4%. The Elo gap is substantial at 235 points in Scotland's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group C fixture with advance probabilities of 7.8% for Haiti and 73.6% for Scotland.

Tactical matchup

Haiti (balanced) meet Scotland (low block) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.

Key battlegrounds

Scotland will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. The individual battle features Dany Jean (P(scores) 5.5%) against Ché Adams (3.5%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

Scotland's Steve Clarke (7.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sébastien Migné (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

A Group C fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.

Key numbers

16.4% / 22.4% / 61.1%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-235Elo differentialHaiti 1532 vs Scotland 1767
0.75 – 2.19Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
0-2 (12.7%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
47.4%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
5.5%P(goal) — Dany JeanHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 1

Both sides face key availability concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Haiti v Scotland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

Get the Pass — $15 →

24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.