Group C · Matchday 1
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Haiti win16.4%
- Draw22.4%
- Scotland win61.1%
Analysis
The model rates Scotland as clear favourites at 61.1%, with Haiti at 16.4% and the draw at 22.4%. The Elo gap is substantial at 235 points in Scotland's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group C fixture with advance probabilities of 7.8% for Haiti and 73.6% for Scotland.
Tactical matchup
Haiti (balanced) meet Scotland (low block) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Scotland will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. The individual battle features Dany Jean (P(scores) 5.5%) against Ché Adams (3.5%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Scotland's Steve Clarke (7.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sébastien Migné (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
A Group C fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
- Scotland's World Cup opponents forced to re-design kit hours before start of the tournament - after political 'war scene' imagery breaches FIFA's rules · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun
- The route to the final Scotland could take at World Cup 2026 · The Independent — Football · 11 Jun
- The World Cup starts TODAY! Your ultimate guide to England and Scotland's chances, the top games for your diary - and all the chaos and controversy as the planet's biggest sporting tournament kicks off · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 1
Both sides face key availability concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Haiti v Scotland plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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