Next match · Semi-final · Match 2
England vs Argentina
15 Jul 2026 · Atlanta
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
Standard Pass for probabilitiesLatest news & match context
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- England captain Harry Kane hits out at ITV interviewer Gabriel Clarke 'trying to create division' between Thomas Tuchel and Jude Bellingham with his questioning at the World Cup · Daily Mail — Football · 14 Jul
- England World Cup semi-final and final? A reminder of where and when! · Sky Sports — Football · 14 Jul
- England vs. Argentina ticket prices: How much do World Cup semifinal tickets cost? · USA Today · 14 Jul
- World Cup 2026: American Ismail Elfath to referee England v Argentina · BBC · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Semi-final · Match 2
- Date:
- 15 Jul
- Venue:
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Post-match calibration is free. When this match finishes, the forecast-vs-result recap: pre-match probability vs the realised outcome, Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted: publishes on the recap page, open to everyone.
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The model's full forecast for this match
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how England v Argentina plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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