Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal

What the model expects· most likely results at a glance

ⓘ Not a contradiction: the favourite's win is split across many scorelines (2–1, 3–1, 2–0…), so the single most common exact score is often a draw even when one side is clearly ahead on the result.

The model makes Arsenal the 54.4% favourite, with the draw at 24.9% and Paris Saint-Germain at 20.8%. It projects 2.71 total expected goals — Paris Saint-Germain 0.98, Arsenal 1.73 — and rates a 50.8% chance of more than 2.5 in the match. The single most probable result is 1–1 at 11.9%, a draw.

Forecast vs live

Our pre-match forecast is locked in before kickoff and does not change as the game unfolds. The live numbers show what has actually happened — the gap is how the match is tracking against the forecast.

Frozen pre-match forecast — unchanged during play (the live estimate is shown separately above).

Forecast values are the frozen pre-match model and do not change during the match. The separate live win probability (shown above, delayed and descriptive) is the figure that updates with the score and time.

Live descriptive stats

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Live commentary & events

• 6'GoalK. Havertz· L. TrossardK. Havertz scores for Arsenal.Arsenal
• 46'Yellow cardC. Mosquera· Delay of gameC. Mosquera is booked — Delay of game.Arsenal
• 54'Yellow cardB. Saka· RoughingB. Saka is booked — Roughing.Arsenal
• 65'Penalty scoredO. DembeleO. Dembele converts from the spot for Paris Saint-Germain.Paris Saint-Germain
• 66'SubstitutionC. Mosquera· J. TimberArsenal change: J. Timber.Arsenal
• 66'SubstitutionM. Odegaard· V. GyokeresArsenal change: V. Gyokeres.Arsenal
• 83'SubstitutionL. Trossard· G. MartinelliArsenal change: G. Martinelli.Arsenal
• 83'SubstitutionB. Saka· N. MaduekeArsenal change: N. Madueke.Arsenal
• 83'SubstitutionK. Kvaratskhelia· B. BarcolaParis Saint-Germain change: B. Barcola.Paris Saint-Germain
• 90'+6Yellow cardJ. Neves· RoughingJ. Neves is booked — Roughing.Paris Saint-Germain
• 90'+6SubstitutionO. Dembele· G. RamosParis Saint-Germain change: G. Ramos.Paris Saint-Germain
• 91'SubstitutionM. Lewis-Skelly· M. ZubimendiArsenal change: M. Zubimendi.Arsenal
• 91'SubstitutionK. Havertz· E. EzeArsenal change: E. Eze.Arsenal
• 95'SubstitutionF. Ruiz· W. Zaire-EmeryParis Saint-Germain change: W. Zaire-Emery.Paris Saint-Germain
• 98'Yellow cardV. Gyokeres· HoldingV. Gyokeres is booked — Holding.Arsenal
• 103'Yellow cardD. Rice· Unsportsmanlike conductD. Rice is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.Arsenal
• 103'Yellow cardM. ArtetaM. Arteta is booked.Arsenal
• 106'SubstitutionMarquinhos· I. ZabarnyiParis Saint-Germain change: I. Zabarnyi.Paris Saint-Germain
• 106'SubstitutionVitinha· L. BeraldoParis Saint-Germain change: L. Beraldo.Paris Saint-Germain
• 118'Yellow cardN. Mendes· HoldingN. Mendes is booked — Holding.Paris Saint-Germain
• 120'+1Penalty scoredG. Ramos· Penalty ShootoutG. Ramos converts from the spot for Paris Saint-Germain.Paris Saint-Germain
• 120'+1Penalty scoredV. Gyokeres· Penalty ShootoutV. Gyokeres converts from the spot for Arsenal.Arsenal
• 120'+2Penalty scoredD. Doue· Penalty ShootoutD. Doue converts from the spot for Paris Saint-Germain.Paris Saint-Germain
• 120'+2Penalty missedE. Eze· Penalty ShootoutE. Eze can't beat the keeper from the spot.Arsenal
• 120'+3Penalty missedN. Mendes· Penalty ShootoutN. Mendes can't beat the keeper from the spot.Paris Saint-Germain
• 120'+3Penalty scoredD. Rice· Penalty ShootoutD. Rice converts from the spot for Arsenal.Arsenal
• 120'+4Penalty scoredA. Hakimi· Penalty ShootoutA. Hakimi converts from the spot for Paris Saint-Germain.Paris Saint-Germain
• 120'+4Penalty scoredG. Martinelli· Penalty ShootoutG. Martinelli converts from the spot for Arsenal.Arsenal
• 120'+5Penalty scoredL. Beraldo· Penalty ShootoutL. Beraldo converts from the spot for Paris Saint-Germain.Paris Saint-Germain
• 120'+5Penalty missedGabriel· Penalty ShootoutGabriel can't beat the keeper from the spot.Arsenal

Match analysis· what the pre-match model expects

Match-outcome probability

• Paris Saint-Germain win
  20.8%
• Draw
  24.9%
• Arsenal win
  54.4%

Expected goals

Mean of the Dixon-Coles joint goal distribution. Same fit that produces the most-likely-scoreline list below.

Most likely scorelines

• 1–1
  11.9%
• 0–1
  11.0%
• 0–2
  10.0%
• 1–2
  9.8%
• 0–0
  7.3%
• 1–0
  6.0%
• 0–3
  5.7%
• 1–3
  5.6%
• 2–1
  5.5%
• 2–2
  4.8%
• 2–0
  3.2%
• 2–3
  2.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Most likely half-time scorelines

• 0–0
  26.4%
• 0–1
  21.8%
• 1–0
  12.1%
• 1–1
  11.5%
• 0–2
  9.6%
• 1–2
  4.7%
• 2–0
  3.1%
• 0–3
  2.8%
• 2–1
  2.7%
• 1–3
  1.4%

Same Dixon-Coles fit as the full-time list above, with rates halved to a 45-minute window and the low-score correction applied to that 1st-half block. The 0-0 row sits higher here than at full-time because fewer minutes have elapsed.

Goal totals

• More than 0.5 goals
  92.7%
• More than 1.5 goals
  75.8%
• More than 2.5 goals
  50.8%
• More than 3.5 goals
  28.7%
• More than 4.5 goals
  13.8%
• More than 5.5 goals
  5.7%
• Both teams score
  51.9%

Each row is the probability the match finishes with more than the listed number of goals. Both-teams-to-score is the probability each side scores at least once. All values are marginals of the Dixon-Coles joint goal grid that produces the scoreline list above — not market lines or any other operator construct.

Event-typed probabilities

• Paris Saint-Germain clean sheetOpposing team scores zero17.8%
• Arsenal clean sheetOpposing team scores zero37.6%

Derived from the same Dixon-Coles joint distribution as the scoreline list. These are descriptive event probabilities — see COMPLIANCE.md §4.2.7 for the framing the project uses.

Win-margin probability

• Paris Saint-Germain by 4+
  0.4%
• Paris Saint-Germain by 3+
  2.0%
• Paris Saint-Germain by 2+
  7.4%
• Paris Saint-Germain by 1+
  20.8%
• Draw
  24.9%
• Arsenal by 1+
  54.4%
• Arsenal by 2+
  30.5%
• Arsenal by 3+
  13.6%
• Arsenal by 4+
  5.0%

Each row is the probability the match ends with the listed margin or larger in that direction. Marginal of the Dixon-Coles joint goal grid; the “by 1+” rows plus the draw row sum to 1.

Game state through the match

• Paris Saint-Germain ahead21.3%
• Level23.8%
• Arsenal ahead54.9%

Probability of each game state at minutes 0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 — derived from two independent thinned-Poisson processes with the Dixon-Coles per-team rates. The three lines always sum to 1 at each minute. The right column shows the state at the match's closing minute.

When the first goal arrives

• 0–15
  36.3%
• 15–30
  23.1%
• 30–45
  14.7%
• 45–60
  9.4%
• 60–75
  6.0%
• 75–90
  3.8%
• No goal
  6.7%

Probability the match's first goal arrives in each 15-minute window. Homogeneous Poisson with combined rate λ = λ_h + λ_a from the Dixon-Coles fit; the seven rows (six windows + no-goal tail) sum to 1.

Half-time / full-time grid

Each cell is P(half-time result, full-time result). All nine cells sum to 1. Derived from a halved-λ Dixon-Coles fit for the first half plus an independent-Poisson second-half convolution.

Comeback probability

• Paris Saint-Germain trail at HT, avoid defeat at FT
  5.8%
• Arsenal trail at HT, avoid defeat at FT
  6.9%

Joint probability — P(side trailing at half-time AND avoiding defeat at full-time). NOT conditional on trailing at HT. Derived from the same half-time / full-time decomposition that produces the HT/FT grid above; a tied first half is neither a home nor an away comeback opportunity.

Season form · the numbers behind the two clubs

Domestic-league expected goals for and against, 2025/2026 season (Ligue 1 / Premier League); ratings are ClubElo. Descriptive season form only — not a forecast for this match.

Top scorers · P(scores in this match)

Each player's chance of scoring is built from his recent goal rate (FBref), how many minutes he is likely to play, and how tough the opponent's defence is — worked out for each club's current squad, not the 2026 World Cup scorer model. Full method in the research note.

Forecast vs result

The probability we published before kickoff, next to what actually happened — and what the model is learning from the gap.

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match. Descriptive comparison only — not a forecast and not a market comparison.