Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group E · Matchday 3

GermanyvsEcuador

·16:00 local

Histórico de confrontos diretos

DateCompetitionVenueScoreResultxG
29 May 2013FriendlyNBoca Raton42W
20 Jun 2006FIFA World CupHBerlin30W

Germany vs Ecuador, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Germany's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Germany or Ecuador.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 3

Both sides contend with a handful of minor squad concerns, and subscribers can unlock the full player-by-player breakdown.

Match-outcome probability

  • Germany win
    41.1%
  • Draw
    26.9%
  • Ecuador win
    32.0%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Ecuador #23 in the world; the model ranks them #13 in this tournament field, 10 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Germany v Ecuador plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Como isso é calculado. Todos os resultados do processo de gols compartilham um mesmo ajuste Dixon-Coles. Veja metodologia.

Dados de 2026-05-28