Austria

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Groep J·FIFA #24

R16 contender

High-pressing side.

Rivaal: Argentina (#2)
Sleutel: Marcel Sabitzer (MF)

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Final squad announced · Austria · 2026-05-19

Source: USA Today ↗

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

Austria carry a 0.5% probability of winning the tournament (21st of 48). The squad bridges generations: Marko Arnautović (37 at kickoff with 132 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Paul Wanner, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group J alongside Argentina, Algeria, Jordan, they are projected at 78.9% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Austria under Ralf Rangnick play a high press game with 53% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.0).

Path to success

In Group J alongside Argentina, Algeria, Jordan, Austria are projected at 78.9% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 27.2%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Austria need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament. Managing minutes for Marko Arnautović across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Austria broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.5%Win probability21st in field

1827Elo ratingRanked 23rd globally

17.0PPDA (press intensity)Lower = more pressing; top quartile (7th of 48)

24.3%Tournament goal probability — Marcel SabitzerTop projected scorer in the squad (MF)

4.4 yearsManager tenureRalf Rangnick

78.9%Group stage advance probabilityGroup J

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

High press · style profile from 8 recent matches

Press

Build-up

6.7

Directness

5.7

Width (proxy)

497.1

Tempo

9.5

Set-piece reliance

11.2

What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.

Percentiles position Austria against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group J finish · Austria

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
14.3%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
39.6%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
31.9%
4th
Eliminated
14.1%

Stage progression · Austria

, 50,000 sims

76.6%AdvAdvance from group
27.6%R16Round of 16
11.9%QFQuarter-final
4.5%SFSemi-final
1.6%FFinal
0.5%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Austria

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Spain41%

Uruguay23%

Switzerland8%

R16

Round of 16

Portugal16%

Colombia16%

Croatia10%

Quarter-final

Spain12%

Argentina12%

Belgium10%

Semi-final

Brazil14%

France13%

Germany11%

Final

Argentina19%

Spain14%

France11%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

De selectie

Confirmed squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Alexander Schlager#1Jersey-boostedRed Bull Salzburg

25c—0.69

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

David Alaba#8↗Real Madrid

112c25tackles0.78

Philipp Lienhart#15→SC Freiburg

40c8tackles0.81

Stefan Posch#5Jersey-boosted↘Mainz 05

51c66tackles0.39

Kevin Danso#3Jersey-boosted↘Tottenham Hotspur

31c13tackles0.49

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Christoph Baumgartner#19↗RB Leipzig

58c14assists0.82

Konrad Laimer#20Caps-driven↗Bayern Munich

56c9assists0.85

Marcel Sabitzer#9Caps-driven↘Borussia Dortmund

97c22assists0.33

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Michael Gregoritsch#11Goals-drivenFC Augsburg

74c24goals0.74

Marko Arnautović#7Goals-driven→Red Star Belgrade

132c47goals0.60

Saša Kalajdžić#14Rating-drivenLASK

21c4goals0.79

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Patrick Pentz#13Jersey-boostedBrøndby★ Likely first sub

18c—0.22

Florian Wiegele#12Jersey-boostedViktoria Plzeň★ Likely first sub

1c—0.00

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Phillipp Mwene#16Jersey-boostedMainz 05★ Likely first subimpact 12/100

29c51tackles0.28

Marco Friedl#23Rating-driven↗Werder Bremen★ Likely first subimpact 4/100

10c17tackles0.69

Alexander Prass#22TSG Hoffenheim★ Likely first subimpact 27/100

18c—0.34

David Affengruber#2Jersey-boostedElche

1c—0.00

Michael Svoboda#25Veneziaimpact 8/100

4c33tackles0.09

Midfielders (8)

PlayerStat

Florian Grillitsch#10Caps-drivenBragaimpact 6/100

58c6assists0.53

Xaver Schlager#4Jersey-boosted→RB Leipzig★ Likely first subimpact 22/100

50c3assists0.56

Romano Schmid#18↗Werder Bremen★ Likely first subimpact 46/100

33c6assists0.85

Nicolas Seiwald#6Jersey-boosted→RB Leipzigimpact 12/100

46c2assists0.38

Patrick Wimmer#21Rating-driven↘VfL Wolfsburg★ Likely first subimpact 32/100

30c2assists0.85

Alessandro Schöpf#26Caps-drivenWolfsberger ACimpact 22/100

35c0assists0.19

Carney Chukwuemeka#17Jersey-boostedBorussia Dortmundimpact 32/100

2c0assists0.42

Paul Wanner#24Rating-drivenPSVimpact 24/100

2c0assists0.35

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes: 1.13%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.120; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 40%; 4 of 10 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Freiburg2
Real Madrid1
Atalanta,Bologna1

Most-connected club pair

Philipp Lienhart + Michael Gregoritsch — Freiburg, 2023-24 · 1,867 shared minutes

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Konrad LaimerFull-backLikely cover: Phillipp Mwene · 0.28Mainz 050.58gap to repl.
Saša KalajdžićStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.57gap to repl.
Michael GregoritschStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.52gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 16, 2026	Jordan	Santa Clara, United States
2	Jun 22, 2026	Argentina	Arlington, United States
3	Jun 27, 2026	Algeria	Kansas City, United States

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers Austria →

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

Last danceMarko Arnautović

37 at kickoff with 132 caps — probably his final World Cup.

League pedigree

21 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — top-tier league pedigree across the squad.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

TouchlineRalf Rangnick

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2022.

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

High Press

Attack

Attack rating0.8819th/48

Shots per match11.723rd/48

Chance quality0.10526th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.8431st/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5226th/48

GK: Alexander Schlager

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share11.2%25th/48

Penalty conversion72.0%25th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%29th/48

Style

Possession53.1%15th/48

Press intensity17.07th/48

Directness5.728th/48

Crossing volume497.111th/48

Long ball volume34.124th/48

Build-up length6.715th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,26235th/48

Club familiarity0.01113th/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored11 goals · 103 shots

Conceded10 goals · 98 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Jordan

Win54.7%

Draw24.7%

Loss20.6%

Expected goals for1.77

Expected goals against0.73

Likeliest score1-0 (14.0%)

Both teams score43.6%

Clean sheet48.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Argentina

Win10.3%

Draw23.4%

Loss66.2%

Expected goals for0.65

Expected goals against1.61

Likeliest score1-0 (16.3%)

Both teams score38.6%

Clean sheet20.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Algeria

Win41.7%

Draw26.1%

Loss32.2%

Expected goals for1.34

Expected goals against1.11

Likeliest score1-1 (13.4%)

Both teams score50.1%

Clean sheet33.0%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record8W · 1D · 1L

Goals28–5

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	HSouth Korea	1–0	W	Friendly
2026-03-27	HGhana	5–1	W	Friendly
2025-11-18	HBosnia and Herzegovina	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15	ACyprus	2–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-12	ARomania	0–1	L	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-09	HSan Marino	10–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-09	ABosnia and Herzegovina	2–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-06	HCyprus	1–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10	ASan Marino	4–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-07	HRomania	2–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Argentina	2	0-1-1	1990 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly
Algeria	1	1-0-0	1982 — Win (2–0) · FIFA World Cup
Jordan	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
UEFA Euro	2024	Round of 16	2-0-2	Same head coach (Ralf Rangnick) since 2022 22/30 of current pool (73%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	1998	Group stage	0-2-1	New head coach since then — now Ralf Rangnick (appointed 2022) 0/30 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Greece · World Cup 2014
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1853) and group draw.
Turkey · Euro 2016
Exited at the group stage
Greece · Euro 2008
Exited at the group stage

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group J finish · Austria?

Stage progression · Austria?

Likely knockout path · Austria

De selectie

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Most-connected club pair

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verhaallijnen

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

Group J finish · Austria

Stage progression · Austria

Confirmed squad