Senegal
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CAF·Groep I·FIFA #19
Transition-heavy side led by Bamba Dieng.
Recente formatie: 4-2-3-1 (3 van 4)
- Rivaal
- France (#3)
- Sleutel
- Boulaye Dia (FW)
Final squad announced · Senegal · 2026-05-21
Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗Toernooivooruitzicht
Analysis
Senegal sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.0% tournament probability (17th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Idrissa Gueye (36 at kickoff with 130 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside wp-bara-sapoko-ndiaye-2007-12-31, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group I alongside France, Norway, Iraq, they are projected at 77.2% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Senegal under Pape Thiaw play a transition heavy game with 47% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.2) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.3 passes per attack.
Path to success
Senegal face France, Norway, Iraq in Group I, with a 77.2% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 17.6%, though reaching the semi-finals (7.5%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Senegal rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Idrissa Gueye across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Senegal broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 11 recent matches
What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.
Percentiles position Senegal against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group I finish · Senegal
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 17.3%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 32.0%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 37.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 13.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Senegal
, 50,000 sims- 75.8%AdvAdvance from group
- 37.3%R16Round of 16
- 17.2%QFQuarter-final
- 7.2%SFSemi-final
- 2.6%FFinal
- 0.9%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Senegal
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsDe selectie
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.27%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.280
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 80%
- 4 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Monaco2
- Lyon1
- Everton1
Most-connected club pair
Krépin Diatta + Lamine Camara — Monaco, 2024-25 · 452 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Sadio ManéWingerLikely cover: Ibrahim Mbaye · 0.44Paris Saint-Germain0.38gap to repl.
- Nicolas JacksonStrikerLikely cover: Cherif Ndiaye · 0.52Samsunspor0.34gap to repl.
- Édouard MendyGoalkeeperLikely cover: Yehvann Diouf · 0.49Nice0.29gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Groepsschema
Group-stage schedule
Onderlinge confrontaties
Verhaallijnen
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
36 at kickoff with 130 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Gained 56 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1928.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.
Vorm en trackrecord
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Édouard Mendy
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 11 matches (AFCON2023,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Senegal trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1878.0 to 1878.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.8% to 1.0% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HGambia | 3–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | NPeru | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-18 | AMorocco | 0–3 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-14 | NEgypt | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-09 | NMali | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-03 | NSudan | 3–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-30 | NBenin | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-27 | NDR Congo | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-23 | NBotswana | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-11-18 | NKenya | 8–0 | W | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2 | 2-0-0 | 2002 — Win (1–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Norway | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2006 — Win (2–1) · Friendly |
| Iraq | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 4 matches | 3-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Cameroon · World Cup 2002
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1884) and group draw.
South Africa · Afcon 2015
Exited at the group stage
Nigeria · World Cup 2002
Exited at the group stage