Bosnia and Herzegovina

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Grupo B·FIFA #—

Knockout contender

Edin Džeko: 40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Rival: Switzerland (#17)
Clave: Ermin Bičakčić (DF)

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WC2026 results

Record1W · 1D · 2L

Goals5:8 (-3)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 12	Canada	1–1	D	Toronto
Jun 18	Switzerland	1–4	L	Inglewood
Jun 24	Qatar	3–1	W	Seattle
Jul 2	United States	0–2	L	San Francisco Bay Area

Perspectiva del torneo

Analysis

Bosnia and Herzegovina carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (36th of 48). The squad bridges generations: Edin Džeko (40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Kerim Alajbegović, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, they are projected at 50.4% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Limited recent tournament data is available for Bosnia and Herzegovina's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.

Path to success

In Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected at 50.4% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 15.0%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Edin Džeko across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

<0.1%Win probability36th in field

1594Elo ratingRanked 66th globally

17.1Shots per 902nd in the field

15.3%Tournament goal probability — Ermin BičakčićTop projected scorer in the squad (DF)

2.4 yearsManager tenureSergej Barbarez

50.4%Group stage advance probabilityGroup B

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Insufficient match coverage.

Percentiles position Bosnia and Herzegovina against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group B finish · Bosnia and Herzegovina

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
6.6%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
18.8%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
43.7%
4th
Eliminated
31.0%

Stage progression · Bosnia and Herzegovina

, 100,000 sims

52.9%AdvAdvance from group
16.2%R16Round of 16
3.0%QFQuarter-final
0.4%SFSemi-final
0.1%FFinal
<0.1%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Bosnia and Herzegovina

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

United States23%

Australia15%

South Korea11%

R16

Round of 16

Belgium18%

Netherlands9%

Morocco8%

Quarter-final

Spain18%

Argentina9%

France8%

Semi-final

France10%

Morocco9%

Netherlands9%

Final

Argentina28%

Colombia17%

Switzerland11%

La plantilla

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Nikola VasiljRating-driven→FC St. Pauli

25c—0.75

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Sead KolašinacCaps-driven→Atalanta

64c24tackles0.48

Amar DedićRating-drivenBenfica

26c—0.83

Dennis HadžikadunićCaps-drivenSampdoria

30c—0.46

Tarik MuharemovićRating-drivenSassuolo

12c—0.59

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Amir HadžiahmetovićHull City

34c1assists0.61

Benjamin TahirovićBrøndby

26c2assists0.53

Armin GigovićRating-drivenYoung Boys

18c1assists0.50

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Edin DžekoCaps-driven↗Schalke 04

148c73goals0.69

Ermedin Demirović↘VfB Stuttgart

38c4goals0.83

Samed BaždarRating-drivenJagiellonia Białystok

11c1goals0.52

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Martin ZlomislićRating-drivenRijeka★ Likely first sub

2c—0.51

Osman HadžikićRating-drivenSlaven Belupo★ Likely first sub

0c—0.33

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Nikola KatićRating-drivenSchalke 04★ Likely first sub

15c—0.44

Nihad MujakićRating-drivenGaziantep★ Likely first sub

10c—0.36

Stjepan RadeljićRating-drivenRijeka★ Likely first sub

4c—0.49

Arjan MalićRating-drivenSturm Graz

6c—0.27

Nidal ČelikLens

0c—0.00

Midfielders (6)

PlayerStat

Esmir BajraktarevićRating-drivenPSV★ Likely first sub

14c2assists0.53

Dženis BurnićCaps-drivenKarlsruher SC★ Likely first subimpact 16/100

18c0assists0.30

Ivan BašićAstana★ Likely first sub

15c0assists0.34

Amar MemićViktoria Plzeň

11c3assists0.19

Ivan ŠunjićCaps-drivenPafosimpact 4/100

11c0assists0.12

Kerim AlajbegovićCaps-drivenRed Bull Salzburg

8c4assists0.00

Forwards (2)

PlayerStat

Haris TabakovićRating-drivenBorussia Mönchengladbach★ Likely first sub

10c4goals0.36

Jovo LukićCaps-drivenUniversitatea Cluj★ Likely first sub

1c0goals0.00

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 3/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.333; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 100%; 3 of 3 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

St. Pauli1
Atalanta1
VfB Stuttgart1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Amar DedićFull-backLikely cover: Arjan Malić · 0.27Sturm Graz0.56gap to repl.
Ermedin DemirovićStrikerLikely cover: Haris Tabaković · 0.36Borussia Mönchengladbach0.47gap to repl.
Edin DžekoStrikerLikely cover: Haris Tabaković · 0.36Borussia Mönchengladbach0.33gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Calendario de grupo

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 12, 2026	Canada	Toronto, Canada
2	Jun 18, 2026	Switzerland	Inglewood, United States
3	Jun 24, 2026	Qatar	Seattle, United States

Enfrentamientos directos

Goleadores proyectados de Bosnia and Herzegovina →

Historias

Storylines

Updated 49 days ago

Last danceEdin Džeko

40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Form trend

Gained 70 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1647.

Teen starterKerim Alajbegović

18 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

Forma y trayectoria

Video analysis: Bosnia and Herzegovina

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 4 matches. 13 players observed, 22 events tracked.

Jovo LukićStandout performer

Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.

1 goal

Goals

Shots

Saves

Blocks

Fouls won

Cards

Rating spread(17 ratings)

8+ (7)7 (3)6 (4)5- (3)

Match by match

Player ratings (13)

Jovo Lukić1 app · 1 events

1 goal

▼

Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.

gs-0038Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.

Ivan Bašić1 app · 1 events

1 goal

▼

Scored the opening goal with a composed finish, setting the tone for his team's strong attacking performance.

gs-0528Scored the opening goal with a composed finish, setting the tone for his team's strong attacking performance.

Nikola Vasilj1 app · 1 events

1 save

▼

Made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention.

gs-0038Made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention.

Friz1 app

▼

Made several crucial saves, including a close-range stop and punching away dangerous corners, keeping his team in the game.

r32-0098Made several crucial saves, including a close-range stop and punching away dangerous corners, keeping his team in the game.

7.5

Nikola Katić2 apps · 3 events

1 goal1 block1 yellow

▼

Made a key defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

gs-0037Made a key defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

gs-0528Scored a crucial header from a corner kick, demonstrating his aerial prowess and contributing to the team's attacking output.

Ermedin Demirović2 apps · 4 events

2 goals2 yellow

▼

Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

gs-0035Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

gs-0529Scored two crucial goals, including a penalty, but received a yellow card for excessive celebration.

Ivan Šunjić2 apps · 3 events

1 goal

▼

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

gs-0036Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

gs-0528Scored a spectacular long-range goal before being substituted at half-time, showcasing excellent striking ability.

Sead Kolašinac1 app · 4 events

2 blocks1 fouls won1 yellow

▼

Made an astonishing goal-line clearance but received an early yellow card.

gs-0037Made an astonishing goal-line clearance but received an early yellow card.

Tarik Muharemović1 app · 2 events

1 block1 yellow

▼

Made a crucial defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

gs-0037Made a crucial defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

Esmir Bajraktarević1 app · 1 events

▼

Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.

gs-0036Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.

T. Tahirović1 app

▼

Substituted in at half-time but had no specific notable actions recorded.

gs-0526Substituted in at half-time but had no specific notable actions recorded.

5.5

Amar Memić2 apps · 1 events

1 shot

▼

Took a free-kick that went over the bar, with no other notable contributions.

gs-0036Took a free-kick that went over the bar, with no other notable contributions.

r32-0095Registered one of his team's few attacking attempts, though his low shot went wide.

Amar Dedić1 app · 1 events

1 yellow

▼

Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

gs-0035Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

Match observations

gs-003The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
gs-003Bosnia and Herzegovina took the lead from a set-piece header in the first half.
gs-003Canada pressed for an equaliser, eventually finding it through a substitute in the second half.
gs-028The match began with an electric atmosphere, with both sets of supporters creating a vibrant backdrop.
gs-028Switzerland demonstrated composure in possession, building attacks from midfield.
gs-028Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a compact defensive approach, showing discipline to limit clear opportunities for Switzerland.
gs-052This video captures a training session for the Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team.
gs-052The session begins with a comprehensive dynamic warm-up, featuring various stretches and jogging drills.
gs-052Following the warm-up, the players transition into close-control ball work, emphasizing quick touches and coordination in small groups.
r32-009The match saw the United States of America create numerous attacking opportunities, with two goals disallowed for offside before their first legitimate strike.
r32-009Bosnia and Herzegovina struggled to establish a consistent attacking rhythm, relying mostly on defensive solidity and occasional long-range efforts.
r32-009A red card for a USA player altered the dynamic, yet the home side managed to extend their lead from a set piece.

Statistical profile

Balanced

Attack

Attack rating0.4142nd/48

Shots per match17.12nd/48

Chance quality0.10527th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.459th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5325th/48

GK: Nikola Vasilj

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share8.1%31st/48

Penalty conversion72.0%26th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%30th/48

Style

Possession48.9%29th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,85014th/48

Club familiarity0.00018th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Bosnia and Herzegovina hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.

Group-stage matchups

vs Canada2026-06-12

Win18.7%

Draw28.1%

Loss53.2%

Expected goals for0.78

Expected goals against1.33

Likeliest score1-0 (15.4%)

Both teams score40.5%

Clean sheet26.4%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Switzerland2026-06-18

Win6.6%

Draw22.5%

Loss70.9%

Expected goals for0.63

Expected goals against1.83

Likeliest score0-1 (15.0%)

Both teams score39.9%

Clean sheet16.1%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Qatar2026-06-24

Win52.5%

Draw25.6%

Loss21.8%

Expected goals for1.37

Expected goals against0.95

Likeliest score1-1 (13.6%)

Both teams score46.7%

Clean sheet38.6%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 4D · 2L

Goals21–11

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	HItaly	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2026-03-26	AWales	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-18	AAustria	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15	HRomania	3–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-12	AMalta	4–1	W	Friendly
2025-10-09	ACyprus	2–2	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-09	HAustria	1–2	L	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-06	ASan Marino	6–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10	ASlovenia	1–2	L	Friendly
2025-06-07	HSan Marino	1–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Qatar	2	0-1-1	2010 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly
Switzerland	2	1-0-1	2026 — Loss (1–4) · FIFA World Cup
Canada	1	0-1-0	2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
FIFA World Cup	2014	Group stage	1-0-2	New head coach since then — now Sergej Barbarez (appointed 2024) 3/33 of current pool (9%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Slovakia · World Cup 2010
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1689) and group draw.
Slovenia · World Cup 2010
Exited at the group stage
Greece · World Cup 1994
Exited at the group stage

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WC2026 results

Perspectiva del torneo

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group B finish · Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Stage progression · Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Likely knockout path · Bosnia and Herzegovina

La plantilla

Predicted squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Calendario de grupo

Group-stage schedule

Enfrentamientos directos

Historias

Forma y trayectoria

Video analysis: Bosnia and Herzegovina

Match by match

Player ratings (13)

Match observations

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

See all 104 match forecasts

Group B finish · Bosnia and Herzegovina

Stage progression · Bosnia and Herzegovina

Predicted squad