Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Group K · Matchday 2
PortugalvsUzbekistan
·12:00 local
Latest news & match context
Team news
- The Cristiano Ronaldo problem standing between Portugal and World Cup breakthrough · The Independent — Football · 11 Jun
Match conditions
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 2
One side faces multiple fitness concerns, including a key player, while the other appears to be at full strength. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Match-outcome probability
- Portugal win65.2%
- Draw23.5%
- Uzbekistan win11.2%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Uzbekistan #50 in the world; the model ranks them #31 in this tournament field, 19 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Portugal v Uzbekistan plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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