Mesuré en public

30 Jun 2026

Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.

3 sur 3 matchs notés
0
Dans le mille
Forte confiance, bon résultat
1
Bonne lecture
A donné le plus de probabilité à ce qui s'est passé
2
Attendu
Le résultat était dans la fourchette
0
Surprise
Le modèle ne l'avait pas vu venir

Moyenne du jour : Within expectations

  • NetherlandsvsMorocco
    NotésVerrouillé 28 Jun
    1 – 1
    • Netherlands34.8%
    • Match nul · réalisé31.8%
    • Morocco33.4%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Netherlands 1–1 Morocco was an outcome the model rated at 31.8% (31.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.699, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Netherlands
    5El IdrissiMissed a penalty during the shootout for the Netherlands.
    Morocco
    8IssaSTDelivered a powerful header to secure Morocco's equalizing goal.
    8SaibariAMShowed attacking prowess with a significant shot and converted the decisive penalty in the shootout.
    5Achraf HakimiRBMissed a penalty during the shootout, which could have secured an earlier victory for his team.
  • FrancevsSweden
    NotésVerrouillé 28 Jun
    3 – 0
    • France · réalisé57.0%
    • Match nul26.0%
    • Sweden17.0%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    France 3–0 Sweden was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.281, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    France
    10Kylian MbappéSTMbappé delivered an exceptional performance, scoring four goals and providing an assist, showcasing clinical finishing and constant threat.
    9Michael OliseRWOlise was instrumental in France's attack, scoring a goal, providing an assist, and consistently creating danger with his exceptional dribbling.
    7Adrien RabiotCMRabiot contributed to the attack with a shot on target and a key assist, while also applying midfield pressure.
    Sweden
    8Sweden GoalkeeperGKThe Sweden goalkeeper made numerous crucial saves, single-handedly preventing a much larger deficit for his team.
    4LagerbielkeRBLagerbielke struggled defensively against France's potent attack and was prone to losing possession in dangerous areas.
  • Ivory CoastvsNorway
    NotésVerrouillé 28 Jun
    1 – 2
    • Ivory Coast29.2%
    • Match nul29.7%
    • Norway · réalisé41.1%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway was the outcome the model rated most likely (41.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.521, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Ivory Coast
    8Amad DialloRWCame on as a substitute and scored a brilliant solo equalizer, completely changing the dynamic of the match.
    7Yahia FofanaGKMade numerous important saves throughout the match, denying Norway on multiple occasions despite conceding two goals.
    Norway
    8Erling HaalandSTScored the decisive winning goal for Norway with a clinical finish, securing their victory despite being isolated for much of the first half.
    8Norway GoalkeeperGKMade several important saves throughout the match, including a crucial one in added time to preserve the lead.
    7Torbjørn HeggemMade a vital goal-line block that prevented Ivory Coast from scoring, preserving Norway's lead.

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Model report card — 30 Jun 2026 · onthepitch