Sweden

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Groupe F·FIFA #—

Knockout contender

Transition-heavy side.

Adversaire
Netherlands (#7)
Clé
Alexander Isak (FW)
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1

Perspectives du tournoi

Analysis

Sweden carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (30th of 48). Watch for Lucas Bergvall — 20 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, they are projected at 56.4% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Sweden under Graham Potter play a transition heavy game, with just 36% possession — among the lowest in the field. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 31.2) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.2 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (10.0 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (19% of their xG).

Path to success

In Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden are projected at 56.4% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 16.6%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Sweden rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Sweden broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.2%Win probability30th in field
1719Elo ratingRanked 43rd globally
36%Possession sharebottom quartile (47th of 48)
16.3%Tournament goal probability — Emil ForsbergTop projected scorer in the squad (MF)
526 daysManager tenureGraham Potter
19%Set piece xG shareAbove-average set piece reliance

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Transition-heavy · style profile from 9 recent matches

Press
31.2
6
Build-up
5.2
6
Directness
9.2
96
Width (proxy)
323.3
4
Tempo
8.7
44
Set-piece reliance
19.3
88

What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.

Percentiles position Sweden against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group F finish · Sweden

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    11.3%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    22.6%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    34.7%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    31.4%

Stage progression · Sweden

, 50,000 sims
  1. 57.4%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 17.7%R16Round of 16
  3. 7.0%QFQuarter-final
  4. 2.4%SFSemi-final
  5. 0.6%FFinal
  6. 0.1%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Sweden

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Brazil30%
France22%
Morocco19%

R16

Round of 16

Germany20%
Ecuador14%
Senegal7%

QF

Quarter-final

France11%
Netherlands10%
England9%

SF

Semi-final

Spain25%
Argentina14%
Portugal11%

F

Final

Spain12%
Argentina12%
Colombia10%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →
2

L'effectif

Predicted squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Viktor Johansson#12Jersey-boostedStoke City
12c—0.81
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Victor Lindelöf#3Jersey-boosted↗Aston Villa
75c19tackles0.62
DF
Gabriel Gudmundsson#5Jersey-boosted↗Leeds United
23c52tackles0.73
DF
Isak Hien#4Jersey-boosted→Atalanta
27c—0.52
DF
Carl Starfelt#15Jersey-boostedCelta Vigo
17c—0.69
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Mattias Svanberg#19Caps-drivenVfL Wolfsburg
39c4assists0.47
MF
Yasin Ayari#18Rating-driven→Brighton & Hove Albion
19c2assists0.69
MF
Lucas Bergvall#7Jersey-boostedTottenham Hotspur
8c0assists0.83
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Alexander Isak#9↗Liverpool
56c16goals0.96
FW
Viktor Gyökeres#17Goals-drivenArsenal
32c19goals0.83
FW
Anthony Elanga#11Jersey-boosted→Newcastle United
28c6goals0.51
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Jacob Widell Zetterström#1Jersey-boostedDerby County★ Likely first sub
2c—0.69
GK
Kristoffer Nordfeldt#23Caps-drivenAIK★ Likely first sub
20c—0.11
Defenders (6)
PlayerStat
DF
Daniel Svensson#8Jersey-boostedBorussia Dortmund★ Likely first subimpact 27/100
11c—0.66
DF
Gustaf Lagerbielke#2Jersey-boostedBraga★ Likely first sub
9c—0.49
DF
Emil Holm#6Jersey-boostedJuventusimpact 35/100
16c—0.26
DF
Hjalmar Ekdal#14Jersey-boostedBurnleyimpact 5/100
11c—0.29
DF
Herman JohanssonRating-drivenFC Dallas★ Likely first sub
2c—0.35
DF
Eric Smith#20Jersey-boostedFC St. Pauli
0c—0.00
Midfielders (2)
PlayerStat
MF
Jesper Karlström#16Udinese★ Likely first sub
23c1assists0.46
MF
Besfort Zeneli#22RecoveringRating-drivenUnion Saint-Gilloise★ Likely first sub
6c1assists0.46
Forwards (5)
PlayerStat
FW
Ken Sema#13Jersey-boostedPafos★ Likely first subimpact 18/100
32c5goals0.12
FW
Gustaf Nilsson#25Rating-drivenClub Brugge★ Likely first sub
8c3goals0.62
FW
Alexander Bernhardsson#21Rating-drivenHolstein Kiel★ Likely first subimpact 40/100
9c0goals0.42
FW
Benjamin Nygren#26Caps-drivenCeltic F.C.
9c3goals0.00
FW
Taha Ali#10Jersey-boostedMalmö
1c0goals0.00
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes
0.00%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.111
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
33%
3 of 9 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Aston Villa1
  • Manchester United1
  • Atalanta1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Alexander IsakStrikerLikely cover: Gustaf Nilsson · 0.62Club Brugge0.33gap to repl.
  2. Jesper KarlströmDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.240.22gap to repl.
  3. Viktor GyökeresStrikerLikely cover: Gustaf Nilsson · 0.62Club Brugge0.21gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

Calendrier du groupe

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 14, 2026TunisiaGuadalupe, Mexico
2Jun 20, 2026NetherlandsHouston, United States
3Jun 25, 2026JapanArlington, United States

Confrontations directes

Buteurs projetés pour Sweden →

4

Histoires à suivre

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago
Heat schedule

3 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Monterrey, Houston, Dallas (peak 29.4°C average).

TouchlineGraham Potter

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.

Dead-ballNiclas Eliasson

Takes corners and free kicks — the team's dead-ball threat.

Teen starterLucas Bergvall

20 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

5

Forme et palmarès

Statistical profile

Transition Heavy

Attack

Attack rating0.9417th/48
Shots per match10.039th/48
Chance quality0.12223rd/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6317th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5130th/48

GK: Viktor Johansson

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share19.3%5th/48
Penalty conversion74.3%9th/48
Penalty save rate22.9%23rd/48

Style

Possession36.2%47th/48
Press intensity31.238th/48
Directness9.22nd/48
Crossing volume323.339th/48
Long ball volume40.98th/48
Build-up length5.238th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,91313th/48
Club familiarity0.00044th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored10 goals · 99 shots
Conceded8 goals · 133 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 9 matches (Euro2020,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Tunisia
Win42.4%
Draw28.1%
Loss29.5%
Expected goals for1.18
Expected goals against0.88
Likeliest score1-0 (14.5%)
Both teams score41.0%
Clean sheet41.6%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Netherlands
Win17.5%
Draw23.6%
Loss58.9%
Expected goals for1.04
Expected goals against1.76
Likeliest score1-1 (11.7%)
Both teams score54.0%
Clean sheet17.3%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Japan
Win23.3%
Draw25.2%
Loss51.4%
Expected goals for1.18
Expected goals against1.28
Likeliest score1-1 (13.5%)
Both teams score50.7%
Clean sheet27.7%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10
Sweden — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 10 snapshotsSweden trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1719.0 to 1719.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.1% (+0.1pp).Elo rating17091716172217292026-05-22 · Elo 1719.02026-06-06 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1719.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%2026-05-22 · 0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.2%)2026-06-06 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (+0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.1% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · <0.1% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (−0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (+0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.1% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.1% (CI 0.1%–0.4%) (0pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10)

Sweden trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1719.0 to 1719.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.1% (+0.1pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 2D · 4L
Goals16–18
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31HPoland3–2WFIFA World Cup qualification
2026-03-26NUkraine3–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-18HSlovenia1–1DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15ASwitzerland1–4LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-13HKosovo0–1LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-10HSwitzerland0–2LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-08AKosovo0–2LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-05ASlovenia2–2DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10HAlgeria4–3WFriendly
2025-06-06AHungary2–0WFriendly

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
Netherlands258-5-122017 — Loss (0–2) · FIFA World Cup qualification
Japan42-2-02002 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly
Tunisia42-1-12003 — Loss (0–1) · Friendly

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
UEFA Euro2021Round of 162-1-1
  • New head coach since then — now Graham Potter (appointed 2025)
  • 11/36 of current pool (31%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup2018Quarter-finals3-0-2
  • New head coach since then — now Graham Potter (appointed 2025)
  • 8/36 of current pool (22%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • Switzerland · Euro 2016

    Exited at the round of 16

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1806) and group draw.

  • Russia · Euro 2004

    Exited at the group stage

  • Russia · Euro 2016

    Exited at the group stage