Mesuré en public
16 Jun 2026
Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.
Moyenne du jour : Nailed it
- 3 – 1
- France · réalisé57.4%
- Match nul25.6%
- Senegal16.9%
VerdictStrong readFrance 3–1 Senegal was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.276, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
France9Kylian MbappéSTScored two decisive goals and was a constant, clinical threat in attack, leading his team to victory.8Bradley BarcolaLWCame off the bench to score a crucial goal with a composed finish, extending France's lead.7Mike MaignanGKMade crucial saves at key moments, maintaining his team's lead.Senegal8Édouard MendyGKMade numerous crucial saves, preventing France from scoring more goals and keeping Senegal in contention.7Ibrahim MbayeSTScored a late consolation goal, showing good footwork and a composed finish.6El Hadji Malick DioufSTHad an early shot on target, showing attacking intent. Iraq 1–4 Norway was the outcome the model rated most likely (67.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.166, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Iraq6Unnamed Player #18STShowcased attacking intent but lacked decisive contributions to the scoreline.6Unnamed Player #15CMDisplayed emotion and intensity but without specific impactful actions in the match.Norway9Erling HaalandSTScored two crucial goals, leading Norway's attack and securing a dominant victory.- 3 – 0
- Argentina · réalisé69.6%
- Match nul22.3%
- Algeria8.1%
VerdictNailed itArgentina 3–0 Algeria was the outcome the model rated most likely (69.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.149, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Argentina6Lautaro MartinezSTRegistered one shot on target that was saved, but otherwise had limited impact on the match events.6Julian AlvarezSTEntered the game as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match notes.6Nicolas GonzalezLWEntered the game as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match notes.Algeria7Luca ZidaneGKMade multiple crucial saves against Messi and Martinez, preventing Algeria from conceding more goals.6Fares ChaibiSTScored a goal that was subsequently disallowed due to a foul, limiting his overall positive impact.4Rafik BelghaliReceived a yellow card for a foul, which was his only notable action and a negative contribution. - 3 – 1
- Austria · réalisé64.0%
- Match nul21.6%
- Jordan14.4%
VerdictNailed itAustria 3–1 Jordan was the outcome the model rated most likely (64.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.196, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Austria5Austria Player #16Committed a foul in a dangerous area, which could have led to a scoring opportunity for the opponent.3Austria Player #19Displayed poor discipline throughout the match, committing multiple fouls and receiving a yellow card.Jordan7Jordan Player #10Showed attacking intent and individual skill, creating opportunities despite some execution errors.6Jordan Player #23Consistently drew fouls from the opposition, indicating a disruptive presence and ability to retain possession under pressure.
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