Mesuré en public

15 Jun 2026

Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.

4 sur 4 matchs notés
0
Dans le mille
Forte confiance, bon résultat
0
Bonne lecture
A donné le plus de probabilité à ce qui s'est passé
2
Attendu
Le résultat était dans la fourchette
2
Surprise
Le modèle ne l'avait pas vu venir

Moyenne du jour : Surprise result

  • BelgiumvsEgypt
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    1 – 1
    • Belgium60.7%
    • Match nul · réalisé24.3%
    • Egypt15.0%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Belgium 1–1 Egypt was an outcome the model rated at 24.3% (24.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.964, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Belgium
    8Thibaut CourtoisGKMade several important saves throughout the match, preventing Egypt from extending their lead.
    8Romelu LukakuSTMade an immediate and decisive impact by scoring the equalizing goal shortly after his introduction.
    7Youri TielemansCMWas a persistent offensive presence, registering multiple shots on target and actively trying to break down the defense.
    Egypt
    9Mostafa ShoubirGKDelivered an outstanding goalkeeping display, making numerous crucial saves to keep Egypt in the lead and secure the draw.
    8Emam AshourCMScored Egypt's opening goal with an impressive long-range strike, showcasing his offensive quality.
    6Mostafa ZicoLWContributed offensively with a shot on target and drew a yellow card for an opponent before being substituted.
  • IranvsNew Zealand
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    2 – 2
    • Iran63.0%
    • Match nul · réalisé24.5%
    • New Zealand12.5%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Iran 2–2 New Zealand was an outcome the model rated at 24.5% (24.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.982, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Iran
    8Ramin RezaeianRBScored a vital equalizer for Iran with a well-executed shot.
    8Mohammad MohebiLWScored the second equalizer for Iran with a crucial header, completing a comeback.
    8Alireza BeiranvandGKMade several crucial saves that prevented New Zealand from extending their lead or scoring more goals.
    New Zealand
    9Elijah JustRWScored two crucial goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and excellent positioning.
    7Max CrocombeGKMade vital saves for New Zealand, preventing Iran from scoring more than two goals.
    6Tim PayneCBPlayed for 77 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
  • SpainvsCape Verde
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    0 – 0
    • Spain87.8%
    • Match nul · réalisé10.5%
    • Cape Verde1.8%
    Verdict
    Tough call

    Spain 0–0 Cape Verde was an outcome the model rated at 10.5% (10.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.572, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Read: what the model missed →

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Spain
    7Marc CucurellaLBWas a constant threat down the left flank, delivering crosses and taking a shot on goal.
    7Aymeric LaporteCBWas a threat from set-pieces and long-range, and maintained defensive solidity.
    6Ferran TorresRWCreated several scoring opportunities and hit the woodwork but failed to convert any chances.
    Cape Verde
    9VozinhaGKHis exceptional goalkeeping performance was the primary reason Cape Verde secured a draw, making numerous crucial saves.
    8PicoCBMade a critical defensive intervention to prevent a late goal, showcasing strong defensive awareness.
    7Diney BorgesCBContributed to a strong defensive effort and had a late attacking opportunity.
  • Saudi ArabiavsUruguay
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    1 – 1
    • Saudi Arabia7.2%
    • Match nul · réalisé23.4%
    • Uruguay69.3%
    Verdict
    Surprise result

    Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay was an outcome the model rated at 23.4% (23.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.073, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Read: what the model missed →

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Saudi Arabia
    9Mohammed Al-OwaisGKDelivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly securing a point for Saudi Arabia.
    7Abdulelah Al-AmriCBScored Saudi Arabia's only goal from a set piece but was also booked for a challenge.
    6Al-ShabatRegistered a shot on goal but had no further notable impact on the match.
    Uruguay
    8Maxi AraújoLWScored the crucial equalizer and was a persistent threat in attack for Uruguay.
    7Fernando MusleraGKMade a crucial save to prevent Saudi Arabia from scoring earlier in the first half.
    6Federico ValverdeCMContributed to Uruguay's attack with a late shot but also committed a foul.

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Model report card — 15 Jun 2026 · onthepitch