Forecast vs result · Round of 32 · Match 3

Netherlands vs Morocco

2026-06-30

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
43.5%
Draw
29.2%
Morocco win
27.3%
Netherlands
0.98
expected
goals
Morocco
0.88

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Netherlands
5
El Idrissi

Missed a penalty during the shootout for the Netherlands.

Morocco
8
Issa

Delivered a powerful header to secure Morocco's equalizing goal.

8
Saibari

Showed attacking prowess with a significant shot and converted the decisive penalty in the shootout.

1goals1shots1on target

Match timeline

5
Achraf Hakimi

Missed a penalty during the shootout, which could have secured an earlier victory for his team.

1shots

Match timeline

Match observations

  • The match was a tightly contested affair, with both teams finding a goal in regular time.
  • Netherlands initially took the lead, but Morocco responded with an equalizer, pushing the match into extra time.
  • Extra time saw a significant save from the Moroccan goalkeeper, preventing a late winner.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.