Quarter-final · Match 2
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
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- Stage:
- Quarter-final · Match 2
- Date:
- 10 Jul
- Venue:
- SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.
Post-match calibration is free. When this match finishes, the forecast-vs-result recap (pre-match probability vs the realised outcome, Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted) publishes on the recap page, open to everyone.
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The model's full forecast for this match
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Spain v Belgium plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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