Forecast vs result · Group C · Matchday 3

Morocco vs Haiti

2026-06-24

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Morocco win
79.7%
Draw
18.1%
Haiti win
2.3%
Morocco
2.29
expected
goals
Haiti
0.43

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Morocco
8
Achraf Hakimi19'–19'

Netted a crucial equalizer for Morocco and created danger with a well-taken free-kick.

2goals

Match timeline

19'Morocco equalises, as Hakimi (#2) converts an opportunity.
8
Sabiri0'–0'

Converted the decisive fifth penalty in the shootout, securing victory for Morocco under pressure.

2goals

Match timeline

0'Morocco player Sabiri scores the decisive fifth penalty, securing victory for Morocco.
Haiti
8
Joseph8'–8'

Scored Haiti's opening goal with a clinical finish, giving his team an early lead.

2goals

Match timeline

8'Haiti scores the opening goal, with Joseph (#16) finding the net.
6
Jean-Kévin Duverne

Was part of the defensive line under pressure during a Moroccan goal, but the team conceded.

Match timeline

6
Wilson Isidor

Showed forward intent by participating in an offensive move for Haiti without a direct goal contribution.

Match timeline

Match observations

  • The Netherlands opened the scoring, but Morocco responded with a powerful header to level the score.
  • The game proceeded to a penalty shootout after remaining deadlocked.
  • The shootout was tense, featuring several misses and saves, ultimately decided by Morocco's fifth successful attempt.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.