Group C · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Brazil's high press game meets Scotland's low block shape. Scotland will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Brazil's high line leaves behind. Brazil's aggressive press (PPDA 17.1) against Scotland's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.0) creates a clear territory question: can Brazil force errors high up, or will Scotland play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Raphinha's 16.5% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Scotland's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Carlo Ancelotti (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Scotland just 14.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Brazil or Scotland.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 24 Jun
Brazil and Scotland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast +1.4pp toward Brazil, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalVinicius Junior· RayanVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.7'
- VAR reviewVinicius JuniorVAR review under way.22'
- GoalVinicius Junior· Bruno GuimaraesVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.45'+3
- 46'SubstitutionA. Robertson· K. TierneyScotland change: K. Tierney.
- GoalM. Cunha· Bruno GuimaraesM. Cunha scores for Brazil.60'
- Yellow cardDanilo· TrippingDanilo is booked — Tripping.62'
- SubstitutionCasemiro· FabinhoBrazil change: Fabinho.65'
- SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· G. MartinelliBrazil change: G. Martinelli.66'
- SubstitutionM. Cunha· NeymarBrazil change: Neymar.76'
- 82'SubstitutionN. Patterson· A. RalstonScotland change: A. Ralston.
- 82'SubstitutionB. Gannon-Doak· R. ChristieScotland change: R. Christie.
- SubstitutionDouglas Santos· Alex SandroBrazil change: Alex Sandro.82'
- SubstitutionRayan· EndrickBrazil change: Endrick.82'
- Yellow cardFabinho· TrippingFabinho is booked — Tripping.82'
- 89'Yellow cardR. Christie· HoldingR. Christie is booked — Holding.
- 90'+1SubstitutionL. Shankland· C. AdamsScotland change: C. Adams.
- 90'+1SubstitutionJ. McGinn· F. CurtisScotland change: F. Curtis.
Player involvement
Brazil
Scotland
Pre-match forecast
goals
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Most likely scorelines
- 2–015.1%
- 1–013.7%
- 3–010.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.7%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.