Forecast vs result · Group A · Matchday 3

Mexico vs Czech Republic

2026-06-24

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Mexico win
45.6%
Draw
27.5%
Czech Republic win
27.0%
Mexico
1.29
expected
goals
Czech Republic
0.95

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Mexico
9
Julián Quiñones12'–105'

Quiñones was instrumental in Mexico's attack, scoring two goals and providing an assist, showcasing excellent finishing and movement.

4goals2shots

Match timeline

12'Mexico's #14 has a shot blocked inside the penalty area.
17'Mexico's #14 shoots wide of the goal from inside the box.
37'Julian Quiñones (#14) scores for Mexico, making it 1-0.
49'Jimenez (#9) scores Mexico's second goal after a pass from Quiñones, making it 2-0.
105'Quinones (MEX) scores Mexico's second goal, beating the goalkeeper after a through ball.
8
Raúl Jiménez49'–49'

Jiménez scored a crucial goal, demonstrating good positioning and finishing to extend Mexico's lead.

2goals

Match timeline

49'Jimenez (#9) scores Mexico's second goal after a pass from Quiñones, making it 2-0.
8
Luis Chávez51'–51'

Chávez scored a brilliant individual goal, showcasing composure and skill in a counter-attacking move.

2goals

Match timeline

51'Chavez (MEX) scores the opening goal after a counter-attack, dribbling past the goalkeeper.
8
Roberto Alvarado141'–141'

Alvarado sealed the victory with a well-taken rebound goal, showing good predatory instincts in the box.

2goals

Match timeline

141'Alvarado (MEX) scores Mexico's third goal from a rebound inside the box.
8
Guillermo Ochoa23'–98'

Ochoa made several crucial saves throughout the match, maintaining a strong defensive presence and preserving Mexico's lead.

6saves

Match timeline

23'Ecuador's #9 Yeboah Zamora's shot is blocked by Mexico's #3 C. Montes and then saved by the Mexico goalkeeper.
64'Ecuador's #9 Yeboah Zamora's shot is saved by Mexico's goalkeeper #1.
76'A shot from outside the box by an Ecuador player is saved by the Mexico goalkeeper.
96'Ecuador's #11 Rodriguez's shot from close range is saved by the Mexico goalkeeper.
98'Ecuador's #7 Hincapie's shot from outside the box is saved by the Mexico goalkeeper.
7
César Montes23'–23'

Montes provided a solid defensive block, preventing a dangerous shot from reaching the goal.

1blocks

Match timeline

23'Ecuador's #9 Yeboah Zamora's shot is blocked by Mexico's #3 C. Montes and then saved by the Mexico goalkeeper.
7
Edson Álvarez39'–39'

Álvarez effectively cleared a threatening corner, showcasing his defensive aerial ability and awareness.

2headers

Match timeline

39'A Czech corner is cleared by Alvarez (MEX) with a header.
6
Angulo

Angulo contributed to the team's attacking efforts with a shot inside the box, but it was ultimately blocked.

Czech Republic
6
Ladislav Krejčí33'–33'

Krejčí showed some attacking intent with a shot from a free kick, but it didn't lead to a goal.

1shots

Match timeline

33'A free kick for Czech results in a shot by Krechi (CZE) that deflects wide.
6
Yeboah Zamora

Yeboah Zamora created several scoring opportunities but was unable to convert them, highlighting a struggle with finishing.

6
Galindez

Galindez made one spectacular save but conceded multiple goals, reflecting a mixed performance under heavy pressure.

6
Rodriguez

Rodriguez had a late close-range shot saved, showing persistence in attack despite the scoreline.

5
Matěj Kovář

Kovář made an early save but ultimately conceded multiple goals, struggling to contain Mexico's clinical attack.

2saves

Match timeline

3
Hincapie

Hincapie's performance was severely marred by a late red card, which significantly impacted his team's ability to compete.

Match observations

  • The match saw Czechia apply early pressure, creating several chances primarily from set pieces and wide runs.
  • Mexico, however, proved clinical on the counter-attack, converting their opportunities efficiently.
  • The game's momentum shifted decisively after Mexico's first goal, leading to a comfortable victory.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.