التوقعات مقابل النتيجة · Group I · Matchday 1

France ضد Senegal

2026-06-16

Post-match calibration

3 – 1
France win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • France win· realised
    54.6%
  • Draw
    27.2%
  • Senegal win
    18.2%
Brier score
0.313
Log loss
0.605
xG (final / predicted)
1.89 / 1.39 · France
0.50 / 0.71 · Senegal
P(realised outcome)
54.6%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Late goalsI. Mbaye (90'+5), K. Mbappe (90'+6)

Key moments

66'⚽
Goal

K. Mbappe (France)

M. Olise

82'⚽
Goal

B. Barcola (France)

A. Rabiot

90'+5⚽
GoalLate

I. Mbaye (Senegal)

I. Ndiaye

90'+6⚽
GoalLate

K. Mbappe (France)

Match statistics

FranceSenegal
54%
Possession
46%
11
Shots
6
8
On target
2
1.89
xG
0.50
6
Corners
4
5
Fouls
9

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (3–1) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.

#11–016.5%
#20–012.8%
#31–112.6%
#42–011.9%
#52–18.4%

Team performance

FranceB+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line5/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
Above profile9/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
Above profile9/10

France displayed strong attacking prowess and clinical finishing, particularly in the second half, to secure a comfortable victory.

SenegalC-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line5/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
Below profile2/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
In line7/10

Senegal's current form suggests they are capable of creating opportunities but are severely hampered by their inability to convert them.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

France
9
Kylian Mbappé56'–66'

Scored two decisive goals and was a constant, clinical threat in attack, leading his team to victory.

1goals2shots2on target2fouls won
▼

Match timeline

56'Mbappe's shot on goal is saved by the Senegal goalkeeper.
57'Mbappe is tackled in the box, leading to a VAR review for a possible penalty.
57'Mbappé is fouled in the box, leading to a VAR check for a possible penalty.
63'Mbappe's shot, set up by Olise, is saved by the goalkeeper.
66'Mbappe scores for France, assisted by Olise, putting them 1-0 up.
8
Bradley Barcola82'–82'

Came off the bench to score a crucial goal with a composed finish, extending France's lead.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

82'Barcola scores for France, extending their lead to 2-0.
7
Mike Maignan

Made crucial saves at key moments, maintaining his team's lead.

6
Désiré Doué48'–73'

Showed good attacking intent with multiple shots on target, though unable to convert.

2shots2on target
▼

Match timeline

48'Doue's shot is saved by the Senegalese goalkeeper.
73'Doue's shot from inside the box is saved by the Senegal goalkeeper.
Senegal
8
Édouard Mendy48'–73'

Made numerous crucial saves, preventing France from scoring more goals and keeping Senegal in contention.

5saves
▼

Match timeline

48'Doue's shot is saved by the Senegalese goalkeeper.
52'Michael Olise's shot is blocked by the Senegalese goalkeeper, Mendy.
56'Mbappe's shot on goal is saved by the Senegal goalkeeper.
63'Mbappe's shot, set up by Olise, is saved by the goalkeeper.
73'Doue's shot from inside the box is saved by the Senegal goalkeeper.
7
Ibrahim Mbaye90'–90'

Scored a late consolation goal, showing good footwork and a composed finish.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

90'Mbaye scores a late goal for Senegal, reducing the deficit to 2-1.
6
El Hadji Malick Diouf1'–1'

Had an early shot on target, showing attacking intent.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

1'Diouf's shot is saved by the French goalkeeper.
5
Ismaila Sarr

Showed attacking threat but squandered a clear scoring chance and had a goal disallowed.

4
Nicolas Jackson24'–90'

Created several good chances but failed to convert any, impacting his team's ability to score.

4shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

24'Nicolas Jackson's shot hits the post.
24'Senegal's N. Jackson hits the post, and the rebound is saved by the goalkeeper.
78'N. Jackson misses a header, sending the ball over the crossbar.
90'N. Jackson has another shot saved by the French goalkeeper.

Match observations

  • The match saw France secure a 3-1 victory over Senegal in a game that came alive in the second half.
  • France grew into the game, with Kylian Mbappe proving decisive with two goals, supported by strong attacking contributions from his teammates.
  • The game featured a VAR review for a potential penalty, which was ultimately overturned, adding to the drama.
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كيف تقرأ هذا. Brier وlog-loss لمباراة واحدة يحتويان على ضوضاء — المهم هو كيف تتمايز التوقعات عبر مباريات كثيرة. هذا الملخص لكل مباراة هو صف واحد من لوحة المعايرة الإجمالية في /docs/calibration/. الاحتمال قبل المباراة المعروض هنا هو المجمّد قبل الانطلاق؛ لم يُعد تسعيره أثناء اللعب.