Previsão vs resultado · Group E · Matchday 1

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

2026-06-14

Post-match calibration

1 – 0
Ivory Coast win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Ivory Coast win· realised
    17.9%
  • Draw
    29.8%
  • Ecuador win
    52.2%
Brier score
1.035
Log loss
1.719
xG (final / predicted)
0.73 / 0.66 · Ivory Coast
0.54 / 1.07 · Ecuador
P(realised outcome)
17.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Surprise resultIvory Coast was given a 17.9% probability pre-match.
Late goalA. Diallo (90')

Key moments

90'⚽
GoalLate

A. Diallo (Ivory Coast)

W. Singo

Match statistics

IVOEcuador
45%
Possession
55%
6
Shots
6
1
On target
0
0.73
xG
0.54
2
Corners
0
8
Fouls
3
3
Yellows
0

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (1–0) was the model's #4 most likely outcome at 11.1%.

#10–118.4%
#20–018.3%
#31–113.1%
#41–011.1%
#50–210.2%

Team performance

Ivory CoastC-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
In line7/10
Cohesion
Below profile4/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team secured a narrow victory through a late goal, suggesting they can grind out results but have areas for improvement.

EcuadorC-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line7/10
Set pieces
Below profile4/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
Below profile2/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
In line6/10

[redacted - vocab gate]

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Ivory Coast
9
Amad Diallo8'–89'

He scored two crucial goals, including the game-winner, making a significant impact as a substitute.

2goals
▼

Match timeline

8'Amad Diallo (Côte d'Ivoire) scored.
55'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Amad (15) replaces Wahi (12).
89'Goal for Ivory Coast: Amad (15) scores.
7
Yan Diomande17'–82'

He was active with multiple shots saved or blocked, showed good dribbling ability, and hit the crossbar.

3shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

17'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Diomande (11) is stopped by the goalkeeper.
46'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Diomande (11) is deflected for a corner.
59'Ivory Coast attack, cross by Diomande (11) goes across the goal.
82'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Diomande (11) is blocked.
6
Bazoumana Touré6'–52'

He was active in attack, hitting the crossbar twice, but did not manage to score.

3shots
▼

Match timeline

6'Côte d'Ivoire's Bazoumana Touré's shot struck the crossbar.
6'Côte d'Ivoire's Oumar Diakité (9) replaced Bazoumana Touré (24).
16'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Toure (24) goes wide.
52'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Toure (24) hits the crossbar.
6
Oumar Diakité6'–6'

He was substituted into the game early but had no further distinct actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

6'Côte d'Ivoire's Oumar Diakité (9) replaced Bazoumana Touré (24).
6
Elye Wahi53'–55'

He hit the crossbar but was substituted early in the second half without further distinction.

1shots
▼

Match timeline

53'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Wahi (12) hits the crossbar.
55'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Amad (15) replaces Wahi (12).
6
Ibrahim Sangaré76'–76'

He was substituted into the game but had no distinct actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

76'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Sangare (18) replaces Fofana (6), Oulai (26) replaces Pepe (19).
6
Christ Inao Oulaï76'–76'

He was substituted into the game but had no distinct actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

76'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Sangare (18) replaces Fofana (6), Oulai (26) replaces Pepe (19).
6
Odilon Kossounou88'–88'

He was substituted into the game late but had no distinct actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

88'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Koussounou (7) replaces Doue (17).
5
Seko Fofana3'–76'

He received two yellow cards for fouls, indicating poor discipline, despite having some shots on goal.

3shots2on target2 yellow
▼

Match timeline

3'Seko Fofana (Côte d'Ivoire) received a yellow card for a foul on Moisés Caicedo.
7'Côte d'Ivoire's Seko Fofana's shot was saved by the goalkeeper.
27'Yellow card for Fofana (6) for a foul on Caicedo (23).
56'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Fofana (6) is cleared.
60'Ivory Coast corner, shot by Fofana (6) is saved by the goalkeeper.
76'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Sangare (18) replaces Fofana (6), Oulai (26) replaces Pepe (19).
5
Franck Kessié4'–37'

He received two yellow cards for fouls, demonstrating poor discipline during the match.

2 yellow
▼

Match timeline

4'Franck Kessié (Côte d'Ivoire) received a yellow card for a foul on Pedro Vite.
37'Yellow card for Kessie (8) for a foul on Vite (15).
5
Guéla Doué5'–88'

He received a yellow card for a foul and his attempted bicycle kick and crosses were ineffective.

1shots1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

5'Côte d'Ivoire's Guéla Doué attempted a bicycle kick which went over the bar.
5'Guéla Doué (Côte d'Ivoire) received a yellow card for a foul on Alan Minda.
44'Ivory Coast attack, cross by Doue (17) is denied by Valencia (13).
49'Ivory Coast attack, cross by Doue (17) goes over the bar.
88'Substitution for Ivory Coast: Koussounou (7) replaces Doue (17).
5
Ange-Yoan Bonny72'–72'

He received a yellow card for a foul, indicating a lapse in discipline.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

72'Yellow card for Bonny (9) for a foul.
Ecuador
8
Hernán Galíndez7'–85'

He made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention despite the loss.

5saves
▼

Match timeline

7'Côte d'Ivoire's Seko Fofana's shot was saved by the goalkeeper.
17'Ivory Coast attack, shot by Diomande (11) is stopped by the goalkeeper.
29'Ecuador attack, cross by Minda (14) is gathered by the goalkeeper.
60'Ivory Coast corner, shot by Fofana (6) is saved by the goalkeeper.
80'Ecuador attack, shot by Preciado (17) is saved by the goalkeeper.
85'Ecuador attack, shot by Angulo (20) is saved by the goalkeeper.
7
Alan Minda3'–61'

He was very active in attack, hitting the crossbar twice and the post once, showing significant threat despite not scoring.

3shots1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

3'Ecuador's Alan Minda's shot struck the crossbar.
4'Ecuador's Alan Minda's shot struck the crossbar for a second time.
5'Guéla Doué (Côte d'Ivoire) received a yellow card for a foul on Alan Minda.
29'Ecuador attack, cross by Minda (14) is gathered by the goalkeeper.
30'Ecuador attack, shot by Minda (14) hits the post.
61'Substitution for Ecuador: Preciado (17) replaces Yeboah (9), Franco (21) replaces Minda (14).
7
Nilson Angulo22'–85'

He was unlucky to hit the post and had multiple shots saved, demonstrating a consistent attacking threat.

2shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

22'Ecuador attack, shot by Angulo (20) hits the post.
85'Ecuador attack, shot by Angulo (20) is saved by the goalkeeper.
6
Pedro Vite4'–54'

He drew two fouls but his only shot went wide, without making a significant impact.

1shots2fouls won
▼

Match timeline

4'Franck Kessié (Côte d'Ivoire) received a yellow card for a foul on Pedro Vite.
37'Yellow card for Kessie (8) for a foul on Vite (15).
54'Ecuador attack, shot by Vite (15) goes wide.
6
Piero Hincapié

He had a shot saved by the goalkeeper but otherwise had no distinct actions mentioned.

6
Ángelo Preciado61'–80'

He came on as a substitute and had a shot saved and a cross cleared, but without major impact.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

61'Substitution for Ecuador: Preciado (17) replaces Yeboah (9), Franco (21) replaces Minda (14).
80'Ecuador attack, shot by Preciado (17) is saved by the goalkeeper.
6
Alan Franco61'–61'

He was substituted into the game but had no distinct actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

61'Substitution for Ecuador: Preciado (17) replaces Yeboah (9), Franco (21) replaces Minda (14).
6
Gonzalo Plata67'–67'

He had a shot blocked but otherwise had no distinct actions mentioned.

1shots
▼

Match timeline

67'Ecuador attack, shot by Plata (19) is blocked.
6
Joel Ordóñez86'–86'

He had a header attempt from a corner that went over the bar.

1headers
▼

Match timeline

86'Ecuador corner, header by Ordonez (4) goes over the bar.
6
Kevin Rodríguez

He had a header attempt from a corner that went over the bar.

5
John Yeboah2'–61'

He had two shots that went high and wide, failing to test the goalkeeper before being substituted.

2shots
▼

Match timeline

2'Ecuador's Yeboah Zamora's shot went high and wide.
13'Ecuador attack, shot by Yeboah (9) goes high and wide.
61'Substitution for Ecuador: Preciado (17) replaces Yeboah (9), Franco (21) replaces Minda (14).
5
Enner Valencia10'–44'

He missed a good opportunity and was generally ineffective in attack, though he did draw a foul.

1shots1blocks1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

10'Ecuador attack, shot by Valencia (13) goes over the bar.
39'Foul on Valencia (13).
44'Ivory Coast attack, cross by Doue (17) is denied by Valencia (13).

Match observations

  • The match was a tightly contested affair with both teams creating numerous opportunities.
  • Ecuador hit the woodwork twice in the first half, and Ivory Coast hit it twice in the second half, indicating a game of fine margins.
  • Defensive solidity was a key theme, with both goalkeepers and defenders making crucial interventions.
← Previsão pré-jogoAo vivo →

Como ler isto. O Brier e o log-loss de um jogo isolado são ruidosos — o que importa é como a previsão se calibra ao longo de muitos jogos. Esta retrospectiva por jogo é uma linha do placar de calibração agregado em /docs/calibration/. A probabilidade pré-jogo mostrada aqui é a que foi congelada antes do início; ela nunca foi atualizada durante o jogo.