Group D · Matchday 2
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Paraguay win32.0%
- Draw27.8%
- Turkey win40.2%
Analysis
Turkey carry a slight probability advantage at 40.2% versus 32.0% for Paraguay (draw 27.8%). The Elo ratings are within 69 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group D fixture with advance probabilities of 66.0% for Paraguay and 76.7% for Turkey.
Tactical matchup
Paraguay (balanced) meet Turkey (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Paraguay press significantly higher (PPDA 14.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Turkey carry a notably high set-piece xG share (20%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.
Key battlegrounds
Turkey adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Antonio Sanabria (P(scores) 7.8%) against Hakan Çalhanoğlu (7.1%) — their impact could prove decisive. Paraguay play a more direct game while Turkey build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Turkey's Arda Güler is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
Two sides ranked within 2 places of each other in the model's tournament hierarchy — the fixture is tight on paper and likely to be tight on the pitch.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Paraguay or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 2
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La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Paraguay v Turkey plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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