Group D · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against Turkey's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will Turkey play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Turkey adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Antonio Sanabria (8.5%) and Hakan Çalhanoğlu (7.2%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group D fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Paraguay or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 19 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Rest differential: Paraguay have had 7 days since their previous match versus 6 for Turkey. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Paraguay and Turkey both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Paraguay minus Turkey: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 2'GoalM. Galarza· J. EncisoM. Galarza scores for Turkey.
- 4'Yellow cardM. Galarza· TrippingM. Galarza is booked — Tripping.
- 45'+3Red cardM. Almiron· Unsportsmanlike conductM. Almiron is sent off — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
- 46'SubstitutionI. Pitta· D. BobadillaTurkey change: D. Bobadilla.
- SubstitutionK. Akturkoglu· B. YilmazParaguay change: B. Yilmaz.46'
- SubstitutionI. Yuksek· C. UzunParaguay change: C. Uzun.60'
- SubstitutionY. Akgun· D. GulParaguay change: D. Gul.60'
- Yellow cardV. MontellaV. Montella is booked.63'
- 67'SubstitutionD. Gomez· G. VelazquezTurkey change: G. Velazquez.
- SubstitutionF. Kadioglu· E. ElmaliParaguay change: E. Elmali.70'
- Yellow cardE. Elmali· RoughingE. Elmali is booked — Roughing.71'
- 81'SubstitutionJ. Caceres· A. MaidanaTurkey change: A. Maidana.
- SubstitutionA. Bardakci· O. KokcuParaguay change: O. Kokcu.86'
- 90'+2SubstitutionJ. Enciso· G. AvalosTurkey change: G. Avalos.
- 90'+2SubstitutionM. Galarza· J. CanaleTurkey change: J. Canale.
Player involvement
Paraguay
Turkey
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–114.3%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–011.6%
- 1–27.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.