Group D · Matchday 2
← VoorafvoorspellingLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Paraguay win32.0%
- Draw27.8%
- Turkey win40.2%
Analysis
Turkey carry a slight probability advantage at 40.2% versus 32.0% for Paraguay (draw 27.8%). The Elo ratings are within 69 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group D fixture with advance probabilities of 66.0% for Paraguay and 76.7% for Turkey.
Tactical matchup
Paraguay (balanced) meet Turkey (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Paraguay press significantly higher (PPDA 14.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Turkey carry a notably high set-piece xG share (20%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.
Key battlegrounds
Turkey adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Antonio Sanabria (P(scores) 7.8%) against Hakan Çalhanoğlu (7.1%) — their impact could prove decisive. Paraguay play a more direct game while Turkey build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Turkey's Arda Güler is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
Two sides ranked within 2 places of each other in the model's tournament hierarchy — the fixture is tight on paper and likely to be tight on the pitch.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Paraguay or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 2
Both sides contend with squad concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Kalibratieterugblik na afloop is gratis. Wanneer deze wedstrijd afgelopen is, verschijnt de terugblik voorspelling versus resultaat (voorafwaarschijnlijkheid versus werkelijke uitkomst, Brier score, log loss en uiteindelijk xG versus voorspeld) op de terugblikpagina, toegankelijk voor iedereen.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Paraguay v Turkey plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.