Group D · Matchday 2

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Scheduled
Paraguay
–:–
Turkey

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Paraguay win
    32.0%
  • Draw
    27.8%
  • Turkey win
    40.2%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

Turkey carry a slight probability advantage at 40.2% versus 32.0% for Paraguay (draw 27.8%). The Elo ratings are within 69 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group D fixture with advance probabilities of 66.0% for Paraguay and 76.7% for Turkey.

Tactical matchup

Paraguay (balanced) meet Turkey (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Paraguay press significantly higher (PPDA 14.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Turkey carry a notably high set-piece xG share (20%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.

Key battlegrounds

Turkey adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Antonio Sanabria (P(scores) 7.8%) against Hakan Çalhanoğlu (7.1%) — their impact could prove decisive. Paraguay play a more direct game while Turkey build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

Injury watch: Turkey's Arda Güler is recovering — availability remains uncertain.

Match storyline

Two sides ranked within 2 places of each other in the model's tournament hierarchy — the fixture is tight on paper and likely to be tight on the pitch.

Key numbers

32.0% / 27.8% / 40.2%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-69Elo differentialParaguay 1833 vs Turkey 1902
1.01 – 1.15Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-1 (14.0%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
44.0%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
7.8%P(goal) — Antonio SanabriaHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Paraguay or Turkey.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 2

Both sides contend with squad concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

معايرة ما بعد المباراة مجانية. عند انتهاء هذه المباراة، يُنشر ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة — الاحتمال قبل المباراة مقابل النتيجة الفعلية، وBrier score، وlog loss، وxG النهائي مقابل المتوقع — في صفحة الملخص، متاحة للجميع.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Paraguay v Turkey plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.