The knockout round is here. After 72 group stage matches across 18 days, the World Cup moves to single elimination. Canada opened the Round of 32 last night with a 1-0 win over South Africa at SoFi Stadium, Stephen Eustaquio scoring in the 92nd minute. The model had Canada at 50.9%, the correct call.
Today brings two more Round of 32 matches: Brazil vs Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston (19:00 UTC), and Germany vs Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in Boston (22:00 UTC). Both are group-winner-vs-third-placed pairings. Neither is comfortable for the favourite.
Last night: Canada 1-0 South Africa
The first knockout match of the tournament went the way the model expected, just barely. Canada had a 50.9% probability, the draw was 30.2%, South Africa 18.9%. Stephen Eustaquio scored in the 92nd minute, a late winner that felt appropriate for a match that had been tight throughout. Alphonso Davies came off the bench at 75 minutes, returning from injury.
The Brier score for this match: 0.368. A correct directional call on a near-coin-flip. The model's first knockout prediction is in the books.
Today's matches
| Match | Venue | UTC | H% | D% | A% | Elo gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs Japan | NRG Stadium, Houston | 19:00 | 49.5 | 27.6 | 22.9 | +64 BRA |
| Germany vs Paraguay | Gillette Stadium, Boston | 22:00 | 52.5 | 27.6 | 19.9 | +103 GER |
In knockout matches, a draw after 90 minutes goes to extra time and then penalties. The draw probability above represents the 90-minute result.
Brazil vs Japan: high press meets low block
The model rates Brazil at 49.5%, the lowest probability it has assigned to any group winner in this Round of 32 except Belgium (44.8% vs Senegal). Brazil are barely favourites. The Elo gap is just 64 points (1978 vs 1914).
Brazil's group stage was efficient. They drew Morocco 1-1 on Matchday 1, then dispatched Haiti (3-0) and Scotland (3-0). Seven goals scored, one conceded. Vinicius Junior scored twice against Scotland and looks like the tournament's most dangerous attacker. Neymar came off the bench in the Scotland match after recovering from a calf injury, his first minutes of the tournament.
Brazil's tactical fingerprint is high-press: a PPDA of 17.1 (the fourth-most intense pressing team in the tournament) with 58% possession. They want the ball, and they want it in the opponent's half.
Japan will not give it to them willingly. Japan's group stage was a study in controlled disruption. They drew the Netherlands 2-2, beat Tunisia 4-0, and drew Sweden 1-1. Five points, 7 goals scored, 3 conceded. Japan operate from a low block (PPDA 26.7, the deepest sit in the tournament), absorbing pressure and attacking on transitions.
This stylistic clash is the match's defining feature. Brazil's press against Japan's absorption. Japan have already demonstrated they can frustrate a top-10 side: they held the Netherlands to a draw from 2-0 down, scoring twice in the second half. If Japan can survive Brazil's first 30 minutes, the match could tighten.
Japan's squad composite (0.365) is the lowest of any team playing today, but their tournament performance has outstripped the rating. Their second-half comeback against the Netherlands (Elo 1966) was one of the group stage's defining results.
If it goes to penalties: Brazil have won 3 of 6 career shootouts (72% conversion rate, 26% save rate). Japan have won 1 of 3 (71.4% conversion, 20% save rate). Neither team has a decisive edge.
Germany vs Paraguay: the bounce-back test
Germany are the stronger team by every measure the model uses. Elo gap: 103 points. Squad composite: 0.657 vs 0.257, the widest gap of any match today. Germany are the tournament's most possession-dominant side (64% possession, top quartile).
But Germany enter on a loss. They fell to Ecuador 1-2 on the final day of the group stage. In 2022, Germany lost to Japan in their opening match and exited at the group stage. A loss followed by an early knockout exit would be an uncomfortable echo.
Germany's group stage had two faces. The first: 7-1 against Curacao (the tournament's most lopsided scoreline), 2-1 against Ivory Coast. Dominant, clinical, ten goals in two matches. The second: 1-2 against Ecuador, who had not scored a goal until that match. Germany led, then Ecuador scored twice in the final 25 minutes. The model had Germany at only 42.4% for that match, its closest three-way split, and was correct to hedge.
Paraguay present a different kind of challenge. They qualified with just 2 goals scored across three matches: a 1-4 loss to the USA, a 1-0 win over Turkey, and a 0-0 draw with Australia. Paraguay's approach is survival. They qualified third from Group D on 4 points despite a -2 goal difference, the weakest attacking output of any remaining team. Their tactical fingerprint is classified as "balanced" because no single style dominates. In practice, that means pragmatic, reactive, and difficult to break down.
The model gives Germany 52.5%. That is not a walk. Paraguay's defensive discipline has been consistent throughout the tournament. They held Australia scoreless and beat Turkey 1-0 despite generating minimal attacking threat. If Germany cannot break the lines early, the match could drift into the kind of attritional contest where fine margins decide everything.
If it goes to penalties: Germany have the best shootout record of any team in the tournament. Six wins from seven career shootouts, a 78.2% conversion rate, and a 30.9% save rate, all the highest of the four teams playing today. Paraguay have won 3 of 4 shootouts (72.5% conversion, 27.5% save rate). If this match reaches penalties, Germany are heavy favourites.
What's at stake in the bracket
The winners of today's matches are on a collision course. The Brazil/Japan winner plays Ivory Coast or Norway in the Round of 16. The Germany/Paraguay winner plays France or Sweden. The top half of the bracket is loaded with heavyweights: a France vs Germany Round of 16 is the most likely outcome from this quarter.
For Brazil, a win today opens a path through Norway or Ivory Coast, then potentially England in the quarterfinal. For Japan, advancement would mark their deepest World Cup run since 2002 and the most significant knockout upset of the tournament so far.
For Germany, a win sets up a probable collision with France, who are the model's top-rated team (Elo 2093) and who finished the group stage with a perfect 9 points. For Paraguay, winning would extend their run beyond anything the pre-tournament models predicted.
Group stage recap: how these four teams got here
Brazil (Group C, 1st, 7 pts, +6 GD): Drew Morocco, beat Haiti 3-0, beat Scotland 3-0. Vinicius Jr (2 goals, 1 assist) has been the creative engine. Alisson kept two clean sheets. The model's group stage Brier for Brazil's three matches averaged 0.293, its best tracking for any team in Group C.
Japan (Group F, 2nd, 5 pts, +4 GD): Drew Netherlands 2-2, beat Tunisia 4-0, drew Sweden 1-1. Japan's two draws came against higher-rated opposition; the 4-0 against Tunisia came when they could play with freedom. They conceded in open play only once across three matches (to the Netherlands).
Germany (Group E, 1st, 6 pts, +6 GD): Beat Curacao 7-1, beat Ivory Coast 2-1, lost to Ecuador 1-2. Ten goals in the first two matches, then a loss on the final day. Germany had 14 players see updated tournament composite scores, the most squad rotation of any group winner.
Paraguay (Group D, 3rd, 4 pts, -2 GD): Lost to USA 1-4, beat Turkey 1-0, drew Australia 0-0. Just 2 goals scored, the lowest of any team still in the tournament. But they qualified as one of the eight best third-placed teams, finishing level on points with Australia (who advanced as runners-up on head-to-head).
Probabilities are from the June 28 model run. Elo ratings use the tournament-updated snapshot (June 25, K=40 neutral-venue updates). Draw probabilities represent the 90-minute result; knockout matches proceed to extra time and penalties if level. The model publishes probabilities, not recommendations. Full methodology. Full Terms of Use.