Group F · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
5:1
Sweden

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Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsSweden
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.942.47+0.53
Sweden1.020.98−0.04

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
16
Shots on target
7
8
Possession (%)
51%
49%
Corners
2
5
Fouls
9
12
Yellow cards
0
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands's high press against Sweden's transition game. Sweden will try to absorb the press and release quick, so the battle is in the first 10 seconds after each turnover. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Memphis Depay's 13.5% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Sweden's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Sweden.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 2
Date:
20 Jun
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Sweden

Sweden come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Netherlands and Sweden both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveBeschreibende Statistiken und die verzögerte Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit · Aktualisierung etwa alle 30 Sekunden

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Sweden (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 5' · B. BrobbeyGoal, 17' · B. BrobbeyGoal, 47' · C. GakpoGoal, 54' · C. GakpoGoal, 59' · A. ElangaGoal, 89' · C. Summerville

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Sweden: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsSweden
  • GoalB. Brobbey· C. GakpoB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.5'
  • GoalB. Brobbey· D. DumfriesB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.17'
  • SubstitutionD. Malen· C. SummervilleNetherlands change: C. Summerville.46'
  • GoalC. Gakpo· D. DumfriesC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.47'
  • 53'Yellow cardG. Gudmundsson· TrippingG. Gudmundsson is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalC. Gakpo· C. SummervilleC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.54'
  • 55'SubstitutionA. Bernhardsson· A. ElangaSweden change: A. Elanga.
  • 56'SubstitutionJ. Karlstrom· B. ZeneliSweden change: B. Zeneli.
  • 56'SubstitutionB. Nygren· L. BergvallSweden change: L. Bergvall.
  • 59'GoalA. Elanga· A. IsakA. Elanga scores for Sweden.
  • SubstitutionF. de Jong· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.59'
  • SubstitutionT. Reijnders· G. TilNetherlands change: G. Til.59'
  • SubstitutionB. Brobbey· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.72'
  • 75'Yellow cardY. Ayari· HoldingY. Ayari is booked — Holding.
  • 79'SubstitutionY. Ayari· T. AliSweden change: T. Ali.
  • 80'Yellow cardL. Bergvall· RoughingL. Bergvall is booked — Roughing.
  • GoalC. Summerville· M. DepayC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.89'
  • SubstitutionC. Gakpo· N. LangNetherlands change: N. Lang.90'
  • 90'+3SubstitutionG. Gudmundsson· E. StroudSweden change: E. Stroud.

Player involvement

Netherlands

AC. Gakpo5' Assist · 47' Goal · 54' Goal · 90' On
B. Brobbey5' Goal · 17' Goal · 72' On
AC. Summerville46' Off · 54' Assist · 89' Goal
AAD. Dumfries17' Assist · 47' Assist
AM. Depay72' Off · 89' Assist

Sweden

A. Elanga55' Off · 59' Goal
AA. Isak59' Assist
G. Gudmundsson53' Yellow card · 90'+3 On
L. Bergvall56' Off · 80' Yellow card
Y. Ayari75' Yellow card · 79' On
Vor-Spiel-ModellVor Anpfiff eingefroren

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
64.4%
Draw
21.6%
Sweden win
14.0%
Netherlands
1.94
expected
goals
Sweden
1.02

Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    10.9%
  • 2–1
    10.0%
  • 2–0
    9.7%
  • 1–0
    9.4%
  • 3–1
    6.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

5 – 1
Netherlands win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win· realised
    58.9%
  • Draw
    23.6%
  • Sweden win
    17.5%
Brier score
0.256
Log loss
0.530
xG (final / predicted)
2.47 / 1.76 · Netherlands
0.98 / 1.04 · Sweden
P(realised outcome)
58.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Vollständige Zusammenfassung: Prognose vs. Ergebnis →

So funktioniert die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die veröffentlichte Vorab-Prognose wird beim Aufstellungs-Lock (T-1h) eingefroren und ändert sich nach Anpfiff nicht mehr; der Rückblick nach Abpfiff bewertet diese eingefrorene Zahl am Ergebnis. Die während des Spiels gezeigte Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit ist dasselbe Modell, neu ausgelesen anhand von Spielstand und Restzeit. Sie aktualisiert sich etwa einmal pro Minute, ist immer verzögert und ist eine beschreibende Forschungsgröße, kein Wettprodukt und kein Preis irgendeiner Art. Siehe /docs/methodology/ für die vollständige Einordnung.