Group F · Matchday 2
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Netherlands win58.9%
- Draw23.6%
- Sweden win17.5%
Analysis
The model rates Netherlands as clear favourites at 58.9%, with Sweden at 17.5% and the draw at 23.6%. The Elo gap is substantial at 242 points in Netherlands's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group F fixture with advance probabilities of 93.9% for Netherlands and 56.4% for Sweden.
Tactical matchup
Netherlands (structured press) meet Sweden (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Netherlands typically dominate possession (54%) compared to Sweden's 36% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Netherlands press significantly higher (PPDA 20.6) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Netherlands must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. Sweden will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Donyell Malen (P(scores) 8.5%) against Alexander Isak (4.1%) — their impact could prove decisive. Sweden play a more direct game while Netherlands build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Netherlands's Memphis Depay is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
For Virgil van Dijk, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Netherlands or Sweden.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 2
One side faces a significant potential absence, while the other has a minor doubt; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Netherlands v Sweden plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.