Group F · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
5:1
Sweden

O confronto mais forte do dia pelo ranking FIFA combinado é grátis para todos: previsão completa e tracker ao vivo completo. Os demais jogos exigem um Standard Pass. Ver o Pass

Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsSweden
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.942.47+0.53
Sweden1.020.98−0.04

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
16
Shots on target
7
8
Possession (%)
51%
49%
Corners
2
5
Fouls
9
12
Yellow cards
0
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands's high press against Sweden's transition game. Sweden will try to absorb the press and release quick, so the battle is in the first 10 seconds after each turnover. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Memphis Depay's 13.5% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Sweden's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Sweden.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 2
Date:
20 Jun
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Sweden

Sweden come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Netherlands and Sweden both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

Ao vivoEstatísticas descritivas e a probabilidade de vitória ao vivo (com atraso) · atualiza a cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Sweden (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 5' · B. BrobbeyGoal, 17' · B. BrobbeyGoal, 47' · C. GakpoGoal, 54' · C. GakpoGoal, 59' · A. ElangaGoal, 89' · C. Summerville

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Sweden: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsSweden
  • GoalB. Brobbey· C. GakpoB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.5'
  • GoalB. Brobbey· D. DumfriesB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.17'
  • SubstitutionD. Malen· C. SummervilleNetherlands change: C. Summerville.46'
  • GoalC. Gakpo· D. DumfriesC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.47'
  • 53'Yellow cardG. Gudmundsson· TrippingG. Gudmundsson is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalC. Gakpo· C. SummervilleC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.54'
  • 55'SubstitutionA. Bernhardsson· A. ElangaSweden change: A. Elanga.
  • 56'SubstitutionJ. Karlstrom· B. ZeneliSweden change: B. Zeneli.
  • 56'SubstitutionB. Nygren· L. BergvallSweden change: L. Bergvall.
  • 59'GoalA. Elanga· A. IsakA. Elanga scores for Sweden.
  • SubstitutionF. de Jong· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.59'
  • SubstitutionT. Reijnders· G. TilNetherlands change: G. Til.59'
  • SubstitutionB. Brobbey· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.72'
  • 75'Yellow cardY. Ayari· HoldingY. Ayari is booked — Holding.
  • 79'SubstitutionY. Ayari· T. AliSweden change: T. Ali.
  • 80'Yellow cardL. Bergvall· RoughingL. Bergvall is booked — Roughing.
  • GoalC. Summerville· M. DepayC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.89'
  • SubstitutionC. Gakpo· N. LangNetherlands change: N. Lang.90'
  • 90'+3SubstitutionG. Gudmundsson· E. StroudSweden change: E. Stroud.

Player involvement

Netherlands

AC. Gakpo5' Assist · 47' Goal · 54' Goal · 90' On
B. Brobbey5' Goal · 17' Goal · 72' On
AC. Summerville46' Off · 54' Assist · 89' Goal
AAD. Dumfries17' Assist · 47' Assist
AM. Depay72' Off · 89' Assist

Sweden

A. Elanga55' Off · 59' Goal
AA. Isak59' Assist
G. Gudmundsson53' Yellow card · 90'+3 On
L. Bergvall56' Off · 80' Yellow card
Y. Ayari75' Yellow card · 79' On
Modelo pré-jogoCongelado antes do início

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
64.4%
Draw
21.6%
Sweden win
14.0%
Netherlands
1.94
expected
goals
Sweden
1.02

A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    10.9%
  • 2–1
    10.0%
  • 2–0
    9.7%
  • 1–0
    9.4%
  • 3–1
    6.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

5 – 1
Netherlands win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win· realised
    58.9%
  • Draw
    23.6%
  • Sweden win
    17.5%
Brier score
0.256
Log loss
0.530
xG (final / predicted)
2.47 / 1.76 · Netherlands
0.98 / 1.04 · Sweden
P(realised outcome)
58.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Retrospectiva completa: previsão vs resultado →

Como funciona a probabilidade ao vivo. A previsão pré-jogo publicada é congelada no fechamento das escalações (T-1h) e não muda após o início; a revisão pós-jogo avalia esse número congelado frente ao resultado. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo mostrada durante a partida é o mesmo modelo, relido conforme o placar e o tempo restante. Atualiza mais ou menos uma vez por minuto, está sempre com atraso e é um número descritivo de pesquisa, não um produto de jogos nem um preço de qualquer tipo. Veja /docs/methodology/ para o enquadramento completo.