Group F · Matchday 2
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Netherlands win58.9%
- Draw23.6%
- Sweden win17.5%
Analysis
The model rates Netherlands as clear favourites at 58.9%, with Sweden at 17.5% and the draw at 23.6%. The Elo gap is substantial at 242 points in Netherlands's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group F fixture with advance probabilities of 93.9% for Netherlands and 56.4% for Sweden.
Tactical matchup
Netherlands (structured press) meet Sweden (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Netherlands typically dominate possession (54%) compared to Sweden's 36% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Netherlands press significantly higher (PPDA 20.6) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Netherlands must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. Sweden will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Donyell Malen (P(scores) 8.5%) against Alexander Isak (4.1%) — their impact could prove decisive. Sweden play a more direct game while Netherlands build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Netherlands's Memphis Depay is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
For Virgil van Dijk, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Netherlands or Sweden.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 2
One side faces a significant potential absence, while the other has a minor doubt; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Netherlands v Sweden plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.