Group F · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Netherlands's high press against Sweden's transition game. Sweden will try to absorb the press and release quick, so the battle is in the first 10 seconds after each turnover. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Memphis Depay's 13.5% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Sweden's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Netherlands or Sweden.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 20 Jun
Netherlands
Netherlands come in at close to full strength.
Sweden
Sweden come in at close to full strength.
Netherlands and Sweden both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Sweden: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalB. Brobbey· C. GakpoB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.5'
- GoalB. Brobbey· D. DumfriesB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.17'
- SubstitutionD. Malen· C. SummervilleNetherlands change: C. Summerville.46'
- GoalC. Gakpo· D. DumfriesC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.47'
- 53'Yellow cardG. Gudmundsson· TrippingG. Gudmundsson is booked — Tripping.
- GoalC. Gakpo· C. SummervilleC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.54'
- 55'SubstitutionA. Bernhardsson· A. ElangaSweden change: A. Elanga.
- 56'SubstitutionJ. Karlstrom· B. ZeneliSweden change: B. Zeneli.
- 56'SubstitutionB. Nygren· L. BergvallSweden change: L. Bergvall.
- 59'GoalA. Elanga· A. IsakA. Elanga scores for Sweden.
- SubstitutionF. de Jong· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.59'
- SubstitutionT. Reijnders· G. TilNetherlands change: G. Til.59'
- SubstitutionB. Brobbey· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.72'
- 75'Yellow cardY. Ayari· HoldingY. Ayari is booked — Holding.
- 79'SubstitutionY. Ayari· T. AliSweden change: T. Ali.
- 80'Yellow cardL. Bergvall· RoughingL. Bergvall is booked — Roughing.
- GoalC. Summerville· M. DepayC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.89'
- SubstitutionC. Gakpo· N. LangNetherlands change: N. Lang.90'
- 90'+3SubstitutionG. Gudmundsson· E. StroudSweden change: E. Stroud.
Player involvement
Netherlands
Sweden
Pre-match forecast
goals
De gepubliceerde kans voor deze wedstrijd staat vast bij de opstellingsbevestiging (≈1 uur voor de aftrap) en wordt daarna niet meer bijgewerkt. Dat is het getal waarop de terugblik na afloop afrekent. De live-winkans in de Live-sectie is een aparte, vertraagde, beschrijvende schatting; die vervangt de gepubliceerde voorspelling niet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 3–16.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Netherlands win· realised58.9%
- Draw23.6%
- Sweden win17.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.