Group F · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
5:1
Sweden

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Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsSweden
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.942.47+0.53
Sweden1.020.98−0.04

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
16
Shots on target
7
8
Possession (%)
51%
49%
Corners
2
5
Fouls
9
12
Yellow cards
0
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands's high press against Sweden's transition game. Sweden will try to absorb the press and release quick, so the battle is in the first 10 seconds after each turnover. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Memphis Depay's 13.5% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Sweden's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Sweden.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 2
Date:
20 Jun
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Sweden

Sweden come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Netherlands and Sweden both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Sweden (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 5' · B. BrobbeyGoal, 17' · B. BrobbeyGoal, 47' · C. GakpoGoal, 54' · C. GakpoGoal, 59' · A. ElangaGoal, 89' · C. Summerville

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Sweden: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsSweden
  • GoalB. Brobbey· C. GakpoB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.5'
  • GoalB. Brobbey· D. DumfriesB. Brobbey scores for Netherlands.17'
  • SubstitutionD. Malen· C. SummervilleNetherlands change: C. Summerville.46'
  • GoalC. Gakpo· D. DumfriesC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.47'
  • 53'Yellow cardG. Gudmundsson· TrippingG. Gudmundsson is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalC. Gakpo· C. SummervilleC. Gakpo scores for Netherlands.54'
  • 55'SubstitutionA. Bernhardsson· A. ElangaSweden change: A. Elanga.
  • 56'SubstitutionJ. Karlstrom· B. ZeneliSweden change: B. Zeneli.
  • 56'SubstitutionB. Nygren· L. BergvallSweden change: L. Bergvall.
  • 59'GoalA. Elanga· A. IsakA. Elanga scores for Sweden.
  • SubstitutionF. de Jong· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.59'
  • SubstitutionT. Reijnders· G. TilNetherlands change: G. Til.59'
  • SubstitutionB. Brobbey· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.72'
  • 75'Yellow cardY. Ayari· HoldingY. Ayari is booked — Holding.
  • 79'SubstitutionY. Ayari· T. AliSweden change: T. Ali.
  • 80'Yellow cardL. Bergvall· RoughingL. Bergvall is booked — Roughing.
  • GoalC. Summerville· M. DepayC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.89'
  • SubstitutionC. Gakpo· N. LangNetherlands change: N. Lang.90'
  • 90'+3SubstitutionG. Gudmundsson· E. StroudSweden change: E. Stroud.

Player involvement

Netherlands

AC. Gakpo5' Assist · 47' Goal · 54' Goal · 90' On
B. Brobbey5' Goal · 17' Goal · 72' On
AC. Summerville46' Off · 54' Assist · 89' Goal
AAD. Dumfries17' Assist · 47' Assist
AM. Depay72' Off · 89' Assist

Sweden

A. Elanga55' Off · 59' Goal
AA. Isak59' Assist
G. Gudmundsson53' Yellow card · 90'+3 On
L. Bergvall56' Off · 80' Yellow card
Y. Ayari75' Yellow card · 79' On
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
64.4%
Draw
21.6%
Sweden win
14.0%
Netherlands
1.94
expected
goals
Sweden
1.02

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    10.9%
  • 2–1
    10.0%
  • 2–0
    9.7%
  • 1–0
    9.4%
  • 3–1
    6.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

5 – 1
Netherlands win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win· realised
    58.9%
  • Draw
    23.6%
  • Sweden win
    17.5%
Brier score
0.256
Log loss
0.530
xG (final / predicted)
2.47 / 1.76 · Netherlands
0.98 / 1.04 · Sweden
P(realised outcome)
58.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。