Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group B · Matchday 2

CanadavsQatar

·15:00 local

Direktvergleich: Historie

DateCompetitionVenueScoreResultxG
23 Sep 2022FriendlyNVienna20W

Canada vs Qatar, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Canada's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).

Latest news & match context

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 2

One side faces a couple of availability concerns, including a key player, while their opponents are at full strength. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • Canada win
    64.3%
  • Draw
    23.1%
  • Qatar win
    12.7%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Qatar #51 in the world; the model ranks them #38 in this tournament field, 13 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Canada v Qatar plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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So wird das berechnet. Alle Torprozess-Ausgaben basieren auf einem gemeinsamen Dixon-Coles-Fit. Siehe Methodik.

Stand 2026-05-28