Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group B · Matchday 2

CanadavsQatar

·15:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28Canada スカッド →Qatar スカッド →ライブトラッカー →対戦成績 →

対戦成績の履歴

Date	Competition	Venue	Score	Result	xG
23 Sep 2022	Friendly	NVienna	2–0	W	—

Canada vs Qatar, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Canada's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).

Latest news & match context

Team news

Canada caught a break with its World Cup group. Can it take advantage? · Toronto Star · 11 Jun

Match conditions

Stage:: Group B · Matchday 2

One side faces a couple of availability concerns, including a key player, while their opponents are at full strength. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

Canada win
64.3%
Draw
23.1%
Qatar win
12.7%

Rank checkFIFA ranks Qatar #51 in the world; the model ranks them #38 in this tournament field, 13 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Canada v Qatar plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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