Group A · Matchday 2
← Vor-Spiel-PrognoseLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Mexico win43.9%
- Draw27.9%
- South Korea win28.2%
Analysis
The model gives Mexico a moderate advantage at 43.9% versus 28.2% for South Korea (draw 27.9%). A 108-point Elo gap gives Mexico a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group A fixture with advance probabilities of 96.0% for Mexico and 75.9% for South Korea.
Tactical matchup
A classic tactical contrast: Mexico's high press approach against South Korea's counter attacker setup — high pressing intensity versus deep defensive discipline. Mexico typically dominate possession (55%) compared to South Korea's 44% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Mexico press significantly higher (PPDA 16.1) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Mexico must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. South Korea will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Raúl Jiménez (P(scores) 9.6%) against Son Heung-min (11.3%) — their impact could prove decisive. South Korea play a more direct game while Mexico build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
South Korea face a 11,732km journey to the venue versus Mexico's 473km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.
Match storyline
For Kim Seung-gyu, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
- World Cup schedule today: How to watch Mexico v South Africa, TV channels & live stream for 11 June · The Guardian · 11 Jun
- World Cup 2026 kicks off with Mexico vs South Africa and South Korea vs Czechia · Fox News · 11 Jun
- Mexico vs South Africa live updates: World Cup 2026 opening game latest news and buildup · The New York Times · 11 Jun
- Mexico and South Africa kick off first 48-team football World Cup · RFI · 11 Jun
- Inside Mexico's troubled 2026 World Cup: How 'the disappeared', deaths, poverty and protests are threatening to douse the hosts' blazing passion for the beautiful game · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 2
Both sides face significant squad concerns, with several key players listed as doubtful for the upcoming match. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Mexico v South Korea plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.