Group A · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Mexico's high press game meets South Korea's counter attacker shape. South Korea will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Mexico's high line leaves behind. Mexico's aggressive press (PPDA 16.1) against South Korea's deeper build-up (PPDA 25.0) creates a clear territory question: can Mexico force errors high up, or will South Korea play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Mexico press high (PPDA 16.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. South Korea will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Raúl Jiménez (9.0%) and Son Heung-min (11.3%).
Off the pitch
South Korea travel 11,732km, 25x Mexico's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Kim Seung-gyu. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Mexico or South Korea.
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 18 Jun
Mexico
Mexico come in at close to full strength.
South Korea
South Korea come in at close to full strength.
Mexico and South Korea both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Mexico minus South Korea: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 4'Yellow cardLee Kang-In· FoulLee Kang-In is booked — Foul.
- GoalL. RomoL. Romo scores for Mexico.50'
- 57'SubstitutionLee Jae-Sung· Hwang Hee-ChanSouth Korea change: Hwang Hee-Chan.
- 57'SubstitutionSon Heung-Min· Oh Hyeon-GyuSouth Korea change: Oh Hyeon-Gyu.
- 58'Yellow cardPaik Seung-Ho· FoulPaik Seung-Ho is booked — Foul.
- SubstitutionB. Gutierrez· O. PinedaMexico change: O. Pineda.71'
- SubstitutionL. Romo· O. VargasMexico change: O. Vargas.71'
- 71'SubstitutionSeol Young-Woo· Yang Hyun-JunSouth Korea change: Yang Hyun-Jun.
- 71'SubstitutionKim Moon-Hwan· Eom Ji-SungSouth Korea change: Eom Ji-Sung.
- 77'SubstitutionPaik Seung-Ho· Cho Gue-SungSouth Korea change: Cho Gue-Sung.
- SubstitutionR. Jimenez· S. GimenezMexico change: S. Gimenez.80'
- SubstitutionR. Alvarado· I. ReyesMexico change: I. Reyes.80'
- SubstitutionJ. Quinones· C. S. Huerta ValeraMexico change: C. S. Huerta Valera.84'
Player involvement
Mexico
South Korea
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.9%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Mexico win· realised43.9%
- Draw27.9%
- South Korea win28.2%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.