Group A · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Mexico
1:0
South Korea

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Live descriptive stats

MexicoSouth Korea
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Mexico1.230.48−0.75
South Korea0.860.69−0.17

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
8
9
Shots on target
4
2
Possession (%)
42%
58%
Corners
0
2
Fouls
9
7
Yellow cards
0
2
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Mexico's high press game meets South Korea's counter attacker shape. South Korea will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Mexico's high line leaves behind. Mexico's aggressive press (PPDA 16.1) against South Korea's deeper build-up (PPDA 25.0) creates a clear territory question: can Mexico force errors high up, or will South Korea play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Mexico press high (PPDA 16.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. South Korea will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Raúl Jiménez (9.0%) and Son Heung-min (11.3%).

Off the pitch

South Korea travel 11,732km, 25x Mexico's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Kim Seung-gyu. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Mexico or South Korea.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 2
Date:
18 Jun
Availability

Mexico

Mexico come in at close to full strength.

South Korea

South Korea come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Mexico and South Korea both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Mexico (above the line)South Korea (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 50' · L. Romo

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Mexico minus South Korea: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

MexicoSouth Korea
  • 4'Yellow cardLee Kang-In· FoulLee Kang-In is booked — Foul.
  • GoalL. RomoL. Romo scores for Mexico.50'
  • 57'SubstitutionLee Jae-Sung· Hwang Hee-ChanSouth Korea change: Hwang Hee-Chan.
  • 57'SubstitutionSon Heung-Min· Oh Hyeon-GyuSouth Korea change: Oh Hyeon-Gyu.
  • 58'Yellow cardPaik Seung-Ho· FoulPaik Seung-Ho is booked — Foul.
  • SubstitutionB. Gutierrez· O. PinedaMexico change: O. Pineda.71'
  • SubstitutionL. Romo· O. VargasMexico change: O. Vargas.71'
  • 71'SubstitutionSeol Young-Woo· Yang Hyun-JunSouth Korea change: Yang Hyun-Jun.
  • 71'SubstitutionKim Moon-Hwan· Eom Ji-SungSouth Korea change: Eom Ji-Sung.
  • 77'SubstitutionPaik Seung-Ho· Cho Gue-SungSouth Korea change: Cho Gue-Sung.
  • SubstitutionR. Jimenez· S. GimenezMexico change: S. Gimenez.80'
  • SubstitutionR. Alvarado· I. ReyesMexico change: I. Reyes.80'
  • SubstitutionJ. Quinones· C. S. Huerta ValeraMexico change: C. S. Huerta Valera.84'

Player involvement

Mexico

L. Romo50' Goal · 71' On

South Korea

Lee Kang-In4' Yellow card
Paik Seung-Ho58' Yellow card · 77' On
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

Mexico win
46.6%
Draw
28.7%
South Korea win
24.7%
Mexico
1.23
expected
goals
South Korea
0.86

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    14.4%
  • 1–1
    13.9%
  • 0–0
    13.2%
  • 0–1
    9.9%
  • 2–0
    9.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 0
Mexico win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Mexico win· realised
    43.9%
  • Draw
    27.9%
  • South Korea win
    28.2%
Brier score
0.472
Log loss
0.824
xG (final / predicted)
0.48 / 1.12 · Mexico
0.69 / 0.95 · South Korea
P(realised outcome)
43.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Resumen completo de pronóstico frente a resultado →

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.