Group A · Matchday 2

← 試合前の予測
Scheduled
Mexico
–:–
South Korea

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Mexico win
    43.9%
  • Draw
    27.9%
  • South Korea win
    28.2%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model gives Mexico a moderate advantage at 43.9% versus 28.2% for South Korea (draw 27.9%). A 108-point Elo gap gives Mexico a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group A fixture with advance probabilities of 96.0% for Mexico and 75.9% for South Korea.

Tactical matchup

A classic tactical contrast: Mexico's high press approach against South Korea's counter attacker setup — high pressing intensity versus deep defensive discipline. Mexico typically dominate possession (55%) compared to South Korea's 44% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Mexico press significantly higher (PPDA 16.1) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.

Key battlegrounds

Mexico must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. South Korea will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Raúl Jiménez (P(scores) 9.6%) against Son Heung-min (11.3%) — their impact could prove decisive. South Korea play a more direct game while Mexico build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

South Korea face a 11,732km journey to the venue versus Mexico's 473km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.

Match storyline

For Kim Seung-gyu, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.

Key numbers

43.9% / 27.9% / 28.2%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+108Elo differentialMexico 1860 vs South Korea 1752
1.12 – 0.95Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-1 (14.1%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
41.9%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
11.3%P(goal) — Son Heung-minHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 2

Both sides face significant squad concerns, with several key players listed as doubtful for the upcoming match. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

試合後のキャリブレーションは無料です。 この試合の終了後、予測 vs 結果の振り返りを公開します。試合前の確率と実際の結果、Brier score、log loss、実際の xG と予測値を 振り返りページですべての方に無料公開。

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Mexico v South Korea plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。