首页 · 赛事进球预测 · Portugal Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.
Portugal — P(进球 ≥1) Portugal 当前征召池中的每位球员, 按模型预测其在 2026 世界杯 Portugal 所参加的比赛中至少进一球的概率排序。详见 /scorers/ 查看全球前50名, 以及 /countries/por/ 查看预测大名单与首发 XI。
征召池中共 37 名球员 # Player Pos Form Team outlook P(scores ≥1) Rank 1 Cristiano Ronaldo PK Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 44.4% ? Rank 2 Gonçalo Ramos Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 29.8% ? Rank 3 João Félix Pos FW Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 15.9% ? Rank 4 Rafael Leão Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 13.1% ? Rank 5 Francisco Conceição Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 8.9% ? Rank 6 Paulinho Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 7.0% ?
Rank 7 Francisco Trincão Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 7.0% ? Rank 8 Bruno Fernandes Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ? Rank 9 Gonçalo Guedes Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ? Rank 10 Pedro Gonçalves Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.4% ?
Rank 11 Carlos Forbs Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.0% ?
Rank 12 Ricardo Horta Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 5.0% ?
Rank 13 Rodrigo Mora Pos FW Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 4.6% ?
Rank 14 Vitinha Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.6% ? Rank 15 Pedro Neto Pos FW Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.4% ? Rank 16 João Neves Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.2% ? Rank 17 Bernardo Silva Pos MF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 3.0% ? Rank 18 Rúben Neves Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.2% ? Rank 19 João Palhinha Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 2.1% ?
Rank 20 Samú Costa Pos MF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.9% ? Rank 21 Mateus Fernandes Pos MF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.9% ?
Rank 22 João Cancelo Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.8% ? Rank 23 Diogo Dalot Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.6% ? Rank 24 Nuno Tavares Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.5% ?
Rank 25 Gonçalo Inácio Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 26 Nélson Semedo Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 27 António Silva Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ?
Rank 28 Nuno Mendes Pos DF Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 29 Renato Veiga Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.4% ? Rank 30 Matheus Nunes Pos DF Form ↗ RisingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 31 Rúben Dias Pos DF Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 32 Tomás Araújo Pos DF Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.3% ? Rank 33 Diogo Costa Pos GK Form → SteadyTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 34 João Carvalho Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
Rank 35 José Sá Pos GK Form ↘ CoolingTeam outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? Rank 36 Ricardo Velho Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ?
Rank 37 Rui Silva Pos GK Form — Team outlook Top-4 5.4 mp P(scores ≥1) 0.0% ? ▸ How to read this table— 4 columns explained
Pos Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1) Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count. 计算方法。 v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.
onthepitch
2026 FIFA 世界杯数据研究平台。
方法论
Forecasts come from a calibrated Ensemble Elo Dixon-Coles Hierarchical Poisson /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up. Tap any abbreviation in a data table for its definition.
How the forecasts score against results — Brier log-loss calibration scoreboard .
Built 11 Jun 09:45 UTC · 0 days to kickoff · Methodology
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