Group E · Matchday 1
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Ivory Coast win17.9%
- Draw29.8%
- Ecuador win52.2%
Analysis
The model gives Ecuador a moderate advantage at 52.2% versus 17.9% for Ivory Coast (draw 29.8%). The Elo gap is substantial at 257 points in Ecuador's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group E fixture with advance probabilities of 72.9% for Ivory Coast and 95.7% for Ecuador.
Tactical matchup
Ivory Coast (possession dominant) meet Ecuador (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Ivory Coast typically dominate possession (58%) compared to Ecuador's 47% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Ivory Coast need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Ecuador will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Franck Kessié (P(scores) 8.4%) against Kevin Rodríguez (3.5%) — their impact could prove decisive. Ecuador play a more direct game while Ivory Coast build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Enner Valencia, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Ivory Coast or Ecuador.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 1
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Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Ivory Coast v Ecuador plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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